JPY Trading Outlook (23-02-2015)

USD/JPY The yen largely followed the risk parade today, which went from off to on as the NorAm session got underway and indications from Greek bailout extension talks were that a deal was in the making. As we near the end of the week, the reports of the deal being done have become more definitive and EUR/JPY is at its session highs close to Thur’s 135.92 high vs a NY morning nadir at 133.56. The focus now is on the Feb high at 136.70 by the upper 21-day Bolli. USD/JPY had run small sell stops below 118.40 in the NY morning, when risk was off, Tsy yields were near their lows and the N225 futures had slipped from o/n highs. But reports of progress toward the Greek deal chased USD/JPY back above 119 and N225 futures to fresh trend highs. In the end, USD/JPY has trod over roughly the same ground for five consecutive sessions. Key supports are between 118.05 and 118.17 from the Kijun, 61.8% of the Feb range, the Feb 16 swing low and the daily Cloud top. While above there the trend remains nominally higher. AUD/JPY used the risk-on vibe to make new highs for the week above 50% Fibo & Kijun hurdles. Heavy JPY data slate next week.