JPY Trading Outlook (02-03-2015)

USD/JPY Even without the aid of rising Tsy yields, USD/JPY prices managed to extend Thur’s rally to 119.80, where exporter and range-trading spec offers capped it ahead of Tues’s 119.84 intraweek peak. The technical outlook strengthened with today’s range wholly above the Tenkan at 119.04 and with the Tenkan above the Kijun and the Cloud. The yen was a weak link among ccys today, perhaps reflecting the spate spotty Japanese data overnight and GPIF allocation data. BOJ QQE2 & GPIF et al buying of foreign stocks and bonds remains key JPY depressants. Jan’s core-core CPI minus the VAT hike impact was just 0.4% y/y. BOJ’s Nakaso comments in the NY afternoon about “green shoots” had little impact on the yen. Fed speakers du jour also did little to clarify when tightening would begin, though June remains moderately favored. EUR/JPY brushed against the Kijun line & 50% of the Jan-Feb recovery at 133.43 before bouncing weakly. Greek intrigue and commencement of the ECB QE next week remain drags. Monthly US Jobs data will be the primary focus next week. ISM is of interest after today’s huge Chicago PMI miss.