JPY Trading Outlook (05-03-2015)

USD/JPY Tues’s USD/JPY losses were consolidated on Wed above the Tenkan at 119.28 amid mixed US data and Fed Beige Book inputs. ADP for Feb was below f/c, but Jan was revised up to 250k and by to the 257k NFP result. ISM’s Services index inched up to 56.9 led by the Employment index at 56.4 from 51.6. The US yield curve steepened marginally, with front-end yields dipping amid contrasting Fed speakers’s comments. Softer stocks kept USD/JPY tamped by the hourly Cloud top by 119.80. N225 futures have managed to hold above their up TL from Jan 16’s low, Thurs at 18,550. A Reuters poll today pointed to expectations for a rise beyond 120 and last year’s 121.86 peak over the next few months. GPIF et al buying of foreign assets as well as Japanese outbound M/A are expected to underpin along with the BOJ’s QQE2 and perhaps more QQE later in the year if need be. Risk-off jags the main threat. EUR/JPY was dragged down by EUR/USD selling that took the main pair to new multi-yr lows and the cross below the 50% Fibo at 133.43 that had been stopping the rot the past few days. The 61.8% was also broken. GBP/JPY stumbled to the Cloud top