USD Trading Outlook (03-07-2014)

AUD/USD Europe didn’t allow AUD/USD longs to come up for air after the miserable OZ trade data. What little lifts of Asia’s 0.9450 low were capped near 0.9465. NY walked in with the pair just below that level ahead of ADP. The big beat for ADP sent US yield higher. AU-US yield spreads widened and the USD went bid across the board. AUD/USD dived, ran stops through 0.9440/45 and hit a 0.9429 low. Pressure remained on the pair as AUD/NZD traded down to 1.0765 and GBP/AUD buying went through the market. Late in the day the pair sat near 0.9440. Recent longs are getting anxious as it looks like the 0.9500 break on July 1 may have been false. They will focus on RBA Chief Stevens’ speech in Hobart later, the ECB meeting and the US jobs report for their cues. Should the stars align and AUD get weighed upon, AUD/USD may see a quick move to key support in the 0.9320 area.