USD Trading Outlook (07-08-2014)

AUD/USD Europe rallied the pair towards 0.9320 after Asian bids near 0.9290 stemmed the overnight slide. A dip just ahead of NY’s open saw the pair back near 0.9300 but the dip was bought. The USD was generally soft and a large 0.9300 expiry aided to keep bears in check. US yields, the USD and EUR all slid lower in concert on soured risk but AUD wasn’t affected. NY kept pushing the pair up and had it near 0.9330 into Europe’s close. A major sell-off in the USD led by USD/JPY saw a quick spike higher. Stops above 0.9345 were run and a high of 0.9376 was hit. The USD and yields remained near the day’s lows so AUD/USD only saw a slight pullback from the day’s high. Late in the day it sat near 0.9355. Traders now focus on Oz jobs due later. The U. Rate is f/c to stay unchanged but the employment number is f/c at 12k vs. the prior 15.9k. Should the jobs data come in weak, AUD should turn soft as the RBA may have to alter its neutral view on rates. A bad number may see today’s gains erased and put the key 0.9180/0.9205 zone back in play.