USD Trading Outlook (03-09-2014)

AUD/USD Aussie couldn’t recover from overnight losses during the NY session. Europe had added to Asia’s losses and had AUD/USD sit just below 0.9290 into NY’s open. An early NY dip below 0.9280 met buyers and the pair rebounded near 0.9290. Aiding the lift towards 0.9290 was a lift in AUD/NZD after the weak Fonterra milk auction. The bounce was short lived though as US ISM data was well above f/c and commodity currencies were heavy across the board. The floor fell out from under AUD/USD and it quickly hit a 0.9268 low. Only a slight bounce was seen though as the USD and US yields maintained most of the day’s gains. The pair sat near 0.9275 late in the session. Traders now look to Oz Q2 GDP and RBA’s Stevens’ speech to CEDA. GDP is expected to deteriorate from its prior result and Stevens is likely to jawbone AUD lower if he mentions it. These factors should weigh on the pair and we may see key s-t support near 0.9240 tested. If that is cleared bigger support in the 0.9175/0.9200 (200-DMA, May low) is the next hurdle for bears.