USD Trading Outlook (11-09-2014)

AUD/USD Early Europe saw bears push the pair to a new s-t trend low of 0.9113. Bids ahead of 0.9100 (likely barrier) prevented further losses & light profit taking had the pair near 0.9145 as NY got going. A small dip in early NY met short covering and the pair steadily climbed towards 0.9170. Aiding the rise was broad base EUR sales that saw EUR/AUD slide towards 1.4175/80 support. Late in the day AUD/USD say near 0.9165 as the 200-DMA and 38.2 Fib of 0.8660-0.9505 loomed. The market now awaits the August AU jobs data. Both the employment & U. rate data are f/c to improve. Should the data surprise to the downside bears will emerge and take the pair towards 50 Fib of 0.8660-0.9505. An inline or slight better than f/c number may see only a limited rally as the mkt feels the recent USD still has legs and AUD needs to play catch up to other currencies that bore the brunt of USD strength.