USD Trading Outlook (17-11-2014)

AUD/USD Europe attempted a break of s-t resistance near 0.8720/30 but failed as they could only reach 0.8717. A drift lower had the pair near 0.8690 as NY got going. Early NY saw the pair dive lower after the solid US retail sales data. The 200-HMA was pierced and a 0.8648 low hit. A bounce ensued as the USD weakened across the board and the pair lifted back above the 200-HMA. The above f/c U. of Mich. data weighed a bit on the pair but not enough and shorts covered in earnest as a wave of USD sales flooded the market. AUD/USD spiked higher and ran stops above 0.8730. The follow through continued into NY’s afternoon and the 61.8 Fib of 0.8912-0.8540 and the Nov 3 high were pierced. A high of 0.8774 was hit. A slight pullback had the pair just below 0.8760 late in the day. the 0.8765/70 zone was pierced but the rally couldn’t hold above it. However, more gains may be due as the pair holds above the 10 & 21-DMAs and a long lower wick is formed on today’s candle. A test of October’s high cannot be ruled out before the longer term bear trend resumes.