USD Trading Outlook (25-11-2014)

AUD/USD After Asia couldn’t hold AUD/USD above the 200-HMA, Europe immediately applied bear pressure. the slide accelerated as USD/JPY spiked above 118.00 and AUD/USD sat near 0.8645 as NY got going. Early NY saw bears keep the pressure on as USD/JPY stayed firm and covering by EUR shorts drove EUR/AUD towards 1.4450. Soft commodity prices had AUD longs running for the hills as well. AUD/USD erased any gains from the PBOC’s action on Friday and hit a low of 0.8602. Little bounce was seen and the pair sat near 0.8610 late in the day. the pair’s inability to hold above the 10 & 21-DMAs likely have recent longs concerned as that increases the bearish risks. There is no major econ data out of Asia that might affect the pair but RBA’s Lowe speaks at the Australian Business Economists dinner later. We may see some dovish rhetoric or at least another effort to talk down the AUD. If that occurs a test of the TL off the Nov low and low from Nov 20 are likely.