USD Trading Outlook (12-12-2014)

AUD/USD Europe weighed on the pair early doors and the pair’s slide picked up the pace after the break of lows seen ahead of the Oz jobs report. A quick move down to 0.8235/40 support met buyers. The pair bounced towards 0.8290 into NY’s open. Early NY saw pressure applied as an AFR story noted RBA’s Stevens wants the pair near 0.7500 http://bit.ly/1sfRBtQ . A quick spike down to 0.8214 ensued but the pair bounced nicely after the market realized Stevens also gave some push back on calls for rate cuts. The pair neared 0.8280 but then remained heavy thereafter as US claims and retail sales data were upbeat. The pair slipped a bit and sat just below 0.8250 late in the day. There is no Oz data later so traders are likely to take cues from China’s Nov IP and retail sales data. If the reports are soft like CPI was earlier this week, AUD/USD should trade heavy. We might then see 0.8200 tested. Should that level break the door is then open to the May 2010 low at 0.8066.