USD Trading Outlook (09-02-2015)

AUD/USD Europe disappointed pots-RBA SOMP bears as they pressed the pair up to 0.7850/60 resistance with little pullback. Stops above 0.7860 seemed in jeopardy. The pair sat near 0.7850 into NY’s open as the USD was a bit soft. An early NY bull rush saw the stops run and a high of 0.7877 hit. A pullback near 0.7850 ensued into the jobs data. The big beat and upward revisions immediately spiked AUD/USD lower. Support near 0.7780 was threatened but it held. JPY weakness saw AUD/JPY lift near 93.10. This likely prevented AUD/USD from falling further. Instead the pair lifted back near 0.7835. The JPY weakness abated and USD strength persisted. AUD/USD then steadily slid & tested below 0.7780. Little bounce was seen as the pair held near the day’s low late in the session. Risks for the pair next week are RBA Gov. Steven’s speech on Feb 9, Oz Q4 home p[rice index and Jan employment data. Housing may get a good look by the market as the RBA noted concerns on prices in the SOMP and post-cut statement.