USD Trading Outlook (02-03-2015)

AUD/USD Europe pressed res near 0.7835/40 just ahead of NY’s open. Once it couldn’t be broken some profit taking took hold. That slide gather pace after US Q4 GDP was a bit above forecast. The USD put in a broad based rally and AUD/USD suffered a bit. Support in the 0.7790/95 area was approached but couldn’t be seriously tested. US yield and the USD dived after the Chicago PMI missed big. AUD/USD retested the day’s high but failed to clear the resistance once again. Late in the day the pair was hugging the 200-HMA. Next week is a big week for AUD. China’s Feb NBS Mfg PMI kicks things off on Saturday. Forecasts call for 489.7 (prv 49.8). Aussie data sees Feb AiG PMI & Jan HIA new home sales early in the week with the big Q4 GDP and Jan retail sales data later in the week. Data might play second fiddle though as the mkt focuses on the RBA. There is a 50% chance of a cut and more traders are leaning that way after the weak CAPEX. With US rates basically stagnant and not helping AUD/USD lower, the RBA may feel it’s their duty to take action in getting AUD down. A rate cut will see AUD/USD bears charge and the 2015 low retested.