USD Trading Outlook (23-03-2015)

AUD/USD A quiet European morning was abruptly stirred to life in early NY. Soft US bond yields had the market leaning more in favor of unwinding USD longs since the Fed’s action from Wednesday. AUD/USD sat near 0.7690 as NY got going. The USD sell-off saw AUD/USD spike higher once s-t stops above 0.7710 were run. The rally persisted for most of NY with very little pullback seen. the lift stalled just short of hourly resistance from March 19 as it hit a high of 0.7802. Intra-day profit taking for USD bears then saw the pair slip back near 0.7775 late in the day. There is no major OZ data next week so traders will look to the USD side of the equation for cues. US Feb CPI is Tuesday. A below f/c reading could see the recent AUD/USD rally press on. As it stands now bulls are gaining some traction. The pair is solidly above the 10 & 21-DMAs, daily RSI is biased up while the monthly is near diverging and a long lower wick is in place on the monthly candle. A retest of the post-FOMC high looks likely for now. A break of the 0.7900/30 zone might lead to a bigger squeeze and a test of 0.8025/55 resistance might ensue.