USD Trading Outlook (30-03-2015)

AUD/USD USD weakness in early NY had AUD/USD pressing up against hourly resistance in the 0.7810 area. The USD’s slide abated though and AUD/USD begin to drift from the high. The pair’s slide accelerated and ran stops through 0.7780. Buys in EUR/AUD seems to be the driver as that pair broke 1.3960 resistance and eventually tested above 1.4100. AUD/USD was pressured to a 0.7747 low and remained near the low even in the face of softer US treasury yields. Late in the day the pair sat near 0.7760, Recent longs are on edge as price action above the 55-DMA and daily cloud base was disappointing. Daily RSI is biased down as is the monthly and yield spreads are narrowing again. A close below both the 10 & 21-DMAs should encourage bears and could indicate the recent rally is over. We’re then likely to see a retest of the 2015 low over the coming sessions.