USD Trading Outlook (24-06-2015)

The USD gained momentum after Federal Reserve governor Jerome Powell’s upbeat comments. He expected strong growth in Q2 with “greater basis for confidence” for inflation to return to 2%. Meanwhile, he also saw a 50% chance of a rate hike in September. He also projected another hike in December but that was less certain.

EURUSD fell to a 2 week low of 1.1134, despite a Greek deal on the cards as well as positive manufacturing data. European and global stocks were also upbeat based on the Greek drama looking to be finalized but also due to US home sales rising to the highest level in 7 years.

Technically, EURUSD seems to have broken some key support levels, opening the way to a retest of 1.1120 /1.1050.

The market seems to have now shifted attention to the interest rate differential between EU and US. Even the GBP was unable to sustain USD’s rally leaving most investors neutral as to direction for the next few days.

AUDUSD was hit during the past Asian session by worse-than-expected Chinese manufacturing and Australian House Price data.

Data wise, the US GDP for Q1 is the highlight of the day however, German IFO for June will play a big role.

Trading Quote of the Day: “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest” Benjamin Franklin

EURUSD

Pivot: 1.125

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.125 with targets @ 1.111 & 1.108 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.125 look for further upside with 1.1295 & 1.135 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1.125 is resistance, expect a return to 1.111.

GBPUSD

Pivot: 1.581

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.581 with targets @ 1.569 & 1.565 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.581 look for further upside with 1.5865 & 1.591 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is capped by a declining trend line.

AUDUSD

Pivot: 0.776

Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.776 with targets @ 0.7675 & 0.7655 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.776 look for further upside with 0.7795 & 0.7815 as targets.
Comment: The RSI calls for a drop.

USDJPY

Pivot: 123.55

Likely scenario: Long positions above 123.55 with targets @ 124.15 & 124.6 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 123.55 look for further downside with 122.95 & 122.55 as targets.
Comment: The RSI calls for a new upleg.

USDCAD

Pivot: 1.2285

Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.2285 with targets @ 1.2375 & 1.2405 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.2285 look for further downside with 1.224 & 1.221 as targets.
Comment: The RSI calls for a new upleg.

USDCHF

Pivot: 0.925

Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.925 with targets @ 0.938 & 0.942 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.925 look for further downside with 0.9205 & 0.9155 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

GOLD

Pivot: 1188

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1188 with targets @ 1174.3 & 1169 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1188 look for further upside with 1194 & 1198 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 1188 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1174.3 remains high.

OIL

Pivot: 60.35

Likely scenario: Long positions above 60.35 with targets @ 61.8 & 62.2 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 60.35 look for further downside with 59.6 & 59.3 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

DAX

Pivot: 11275

Likely scenario: Long positions above 11275 with targets @ 11700 & 11800 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 11275 look for further downside with 11040 & 10880 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.