USD Trading Outlook (01-07-2015)

Markets remain mixed and are watching developments in Greece. Yesterday, the IMF payment that was scheduled to be repaid, was missed. This makes Greece the first developed Country to default to the IMF. Still, the negotiations are expected to continue in the days ahead.

Overnight, Asian equities staged a rebound from last days sell off albeit a small one. NZDUSD was the strongest performer as the pair rebounded from its 5 year lows to around 0.68. Among the Asian indices, the Nikkei extends gains for the second day in a row, currently up 0.25%, while Australian benchmark the ASX 200 trades 0.40% higher at 5480.70.

EURUSD sank ahead of the Asian opening towards 1.1111, even though German retail sales grew 0.5 in May. The pair is now trading at 1.1140 before European markets open.

GBPUSD is trading range bound despite encouraging UK GDP numbers. The pair spiked to 1.5774 after encouraging GDP figures however was not able to sustain its gains over the 1.5750 Fibonacci resistance.

Looking ahead, developments in Greece will remain the focus. Meanwhile, manufacturing data from Swiss, UK and Eurozone will be featured in the European session. Remember: All important, US jobs report is tomorrow.

Trading Quote of the Day: “In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable” Robert Arnott

Green lines are resistance, Red lines are support

EURUSD

Pivot: 1.121

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.121 with targets @ 1.106 & 1.1 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.121 look for further upside with 1.128 & 1.135 as targets.

Comment: The RSI lacks upward momentum.

GBPUSD

Pivot: 1.574

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.574 with targets @ 1.566 & 1.562 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.574 look for further upside with 1.577 & 1.579 as targets.

Comment: As long as 1.574 is resistance, likely decline to 1.566.

AUDUSD

Pivot: 0.7685

Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.7685 with targets @ 0.775 & 0.778 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 0.7685 look for further downside with 0.7655 & 0.763 as targets.

Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.

USDJPY

Pivot: 122.7

Likely scenario: Short positions below 122.7 with targets @ 121.9 & 121.4 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 122.7 look for further upside with 123.2 & 123.7 as targets.

Comment: The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 122.7.

USDCAD

Pivot: 1.2425

Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.2425 with targets @ 1.253 & 1.256 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.2425 look for further downside with 1.236 & 1.233 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is well directed.

USDCHF

Pivot: 0.9285

Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.9285 with targets @ 0.94 & 0.945 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 0.9285 look for further downside with 0.924 & 0.9205 as targets.

Comment: Technically the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50.

GOLD

Pivot: 1177.5

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1177.5 with targets @ 1169 & 1162.5 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1177.5 look for further upside with 1185 & 1188 as targets.

Comment: The RSI lacks upward momentum.

OIL

Pivot: 57.95

Likely scenario: Long positions above 57.95 with targets @ 60 & 60.82 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 57.95 look for further downside with 56.85 & 55.7 as targets.

Comment: The next resistances are at 60 and then at 60.82.

DAX

Pivot: 10800

Likely scenario: Long positions above 10800 with targets @ 11135 & 11285 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 10800 look for further downside with 10640 & 10435 as targets.

Comment: The RSI has just broken above a declining trend line