USD Trading Outlook (03-07-2015)

USD is trading lower after NFP release indicated that 223k jobs were created compared to 225k expected. The disappointment was mostly due to prior month’s revision which was brought down to 254k from 280k indicating that the jobs sector did not grow as much as people hoped for. Disappointing were also the numbers showing wages, as the data indicated that wages did not grow at all during this past month as was expected.

As a result most majors recovered versus the USD. EURUSD made a low of 1.1032 earlier however, post NFP is trading now at 1.1100. Same picture is seen across all pairs with the majority of them rebounding 50-60 pips versus the USD.

GOLD made a new multi month low today at 1157.70 however post NFP is trading now at 1165. Nevertheless, the break of the 1162.50 support indicates that the way to 1130 has opened.

Latest data indicate that we could expect a market with not a lot of fuel for further direction. This is the perfect setup for short term trades, so choose your entry points wisely.

Quote of the Day: “Vision without action is a daydream. Action without vision is a nightmare.” – Japanese proverb

Green lines are resistance, Red lines are support

EURUSD

Pivot: 1.111

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.111 with targets @ 1.103 & 1.098 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.111 look for further upside with 1.1155 & 1.121 as targets.

Comment: As long as the resistance at 1.111 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.103 remains high.

GBPUSD

Pivot: 1.562

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.562 with targets @ 1.558 & 1.554 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.562 look for further upside with 1.568 & 1.574 as targets.

Comment: As long as the resistance at 1.562 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.558 remains high.

AUDUSD

Pivot: 0.7655

Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.7655 with targets @ 0.7585 & 0.757 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 0.7655 look for further upside with 0.7675 & 0.77 as targets.

Comment: As long as the resistance at 0.7655 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.7585 remains high.

USDJPY

Pivot: 123.25

Likely scenario: Long positions above 123.25 with targets @ 123.7 & 124 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 123.25 look for further downside with 122.85 & 122.35 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is supported by a rising trend line.

USDCAD

Pivot: 1.2575

Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.2575 with targets @ 1.263 & 1.267 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.2575 look for further downside with 1.2525 & 1.247 as targets.

Comment: The immediate trend remains up and the momentum is strong. The ascending 50-period moving average maintains a bullish bias.

USDCHF

Pivot: 0.944

Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.944 with targets @ 0.951 & 0.954 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 0.944 look for further downside with 0.94 & 0.936 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

GOLD

Pivot: 1169

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1169 with targets @ 1159 & 1156.3 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1169 look for further upside with 1175 & 1180.5 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is mixed to bearish.

OIL

Pivot: 58

Likely scenario: Short positions below 58 with targets @ 56.7 & 55.8 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 58 look for further upside with 58.95 & 59.7 as targets.

Comment: The break below 58 is a negative signal that has opened a path to 56.7.

DAX

Pivot: 10800

Likely scenario: Long positions above 10800 with targets @ 11285 & 11380 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 10800 look for further downside with 10640 & 10435 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.