Daily Post

January 19, 2016

Markets were reasonably quiet overnight, with the US Martin Luther King Day holiday and no release of major data taking place. European markets consolidated after Friday’s losses as the Euro50 fell 0.6% while the DAX tipped 0.2% lower. Evidence remains that global growth concerns and oil price weakness continue to weigh heavily on investor minds.

China concerns continue to dominate headlines as GDP and Industrial Production data will be released at 1:00pm AEDT today. ANZ expect Q4 GDP data to come in soft at 6.8%, missing the projected GDP target of 7%. These December figures are important in determining the momentum of the Chinese economy as it finished 2015. Recent equity market devaluations combined with a continued slowdown in China’s economy could see further monetary policy easing by the PBoC. If data released varies greatly from estimates, investors should expect increases in market volatility.

In Commodities, Brent hit fresh twelve year lows at USD27.70/bbl while WTI prices held below the USD30/bbl level. Investor sentiment appears to be driving oil prices as concerns heighten over Iranian oil flooding the market.
Trading Quote of the Day:
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.”

– Sir John Templeton

Currency Updates:

EUR/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 1.091

Our preference: short positions below 1.091 with targets @ 1.087 & 1.0835 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.091 look for further upside with 1.0945 & 1.0985 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.

Supports and resistances:
1.0985 ***
1.0945 **
1.091 ***
1.089 Last
1.087 ***
1.0835 ***
1.08 ***

USD/JPY Intraday: key resistance at 117.45.

Pivot: 117.45

Our preference: short positions below 117.45 with targets @ 116.85 & 116.5 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 117.45 look for further upside with 117.95 & 118.35 as targets.

Comment: the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 117.45.

Supports and resistances:
118.35 ***
117.95 ***
117.45 ***
117.38 Last
116.85 ***
116.5 **
116.15 **

GBP/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 1.432

Our preference: short positions below 1.432 with targets @ 1.4225 & 1.4185 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.432 look for further upside with 1.436 & 1.44 as targets.

Comment: a break below 1.4225 would trigger a drop towards 1.4185.

Supports and resistances:
1.44 ***
1.436 ***
1.432 ***
1.4252 Last
1.4225 ***
1.4185 *
1.415 *

AUD/USD Intraday: key resistance at 0.6915.

Pivot: 0.6915

Our preference: short positions below 0.6915 with targets @ 0.6845 & 0.6825 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 0.6915 look for further upside with 0.696 & 0.7 as targets.

Comment: a break below 0.6845 would trigger a drop towards 0.6825.

Supports and resistances:
0.7 ***
0.696 ***
0.6915 ***
0.6872 Last
0.6845 **
0.6825 **
0.6795 **

SPI 200‏ (ASX)‏ (H6) Intraday: key resistance at 4815.

Pivot: 4815

Our preference: short positions below 4815 with targets @ 4750 & 4700 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 4815 look for further upside with 4885 & 4945 as targets.

Comment: the index currently faces a challenging resistance area at 4815.

Supports and resistances:
4945
4885
4815
4807 Last
4750
4700
4650

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