Trader Talk

USDX: 92.215

US 10-year bond yield strengthen overnight, reached 2.50%. Dollar index Rallied around the 92.20 level as the dollar continued its winning ways for the second day in a row rising against all the major pairs except the yen, the next target level looking at around 92.50.

USD JPY: 112.25

BOJ announced reduce the purchase of 10 – 25 years JGB, from 200bln yen, to 190bln yen. Market reacts with USDJPY sell off, trading at below 112.30. Strong support level still held at 112, a break below that level tonight will lead to more seller to the pair.

EUR USD: 1.1930

EUR/USD extended its losses for the third consecutive trading days. Euro area unemployment rate fell to 8.7%, a nine-year low, German IP came in stronger than expected, with an increase of 3.4% (expected 1.8%), while Trade balance is stronger than expected.
EUR, meanwhile, did not react with the good data, as markets are focusing on to the U.S. bond market. EURUSD broke below key level 1.20 two days ago, and trading at 1.1930 level.

GBP USD: 1.3553

GBPUSD still trading between the 1.350 and 1.360 level this year, and break through between this level will show a clear trend of the sterling.
A better than expected BRC retail sales report and tomorrow’s industrial production and trade balance numbers could be significant. The slide in the PMI manufacturing index pointing to a softer result, if these releases surprise the downside, we could see a deeper correction towards 1.3450.

AUD USD: 0.7811

AUDUSD bounced back from the fall at the beginning of Asia session and rallied back to 0.7830 before it fell back due to the weak CPI data from China. However, the AUDUSD still trading above key level 0.78.

NZD USD: 0.7145

The kiwi is chopping about within a relatively tight range but continues to flirt with the 72 cents level. The impetus for a push higher may again not be there today, particularly following the surge in US yields.

USD CAD: 1.2467

USDCAD continued the rally, broke above 1.2450 level, despite of having another fresh year high Oil price and a rising Canadian yield. If it successfully break above 1.25, it indicates that buyer are stronger for the pair.

VIX: 10.08

VIX raise above 10.00 level as the rally on S&P500 are not expected to be sustained. The low record level are not expected to continue, as there will be correction in term of selling off the US stocks.

GOLD: $1311

Following the 2nd day bounce back of the dollar, Gold’s bullish momentum is turning opposite for the day as it is crossed below 1310 level. As confidence in the USD continues to persevere in the following days, Gold is expected to drop.

OIL (WTI): $63.51

Oil price rallied strongly overnight breaking $63.00 level touching its highest, following the decline in the U.S rig count and the expectations of upcoming US Crude Oil Inventories report that will drop again for the 8th week consecutively.
The upcoming US crude oil inventory report will be the main catalyst in the Oil price.

BITCOIN (BTC): $14,000

Bitcoin’s high is still in consolidation pattern towards bearish manner, waiting to be stabilised at a point of the market. BTC reaches below the 14000 level today continues following the sudden removal of prices from the South Korean exchanges.

Macro Themes in Play