Overnight the AUDUSD rallied almost 100 pips to 0.7354 after the Central Bank left rates unchanged. Much better than expected retail sales from Australia ignited the rally though, as the policy stance was widely anticipated. EURUSD dropped to 1.0930, down almost 200 pips from Fridays high. The session in Europe is not heavy data wise, however focus will shift towards UK construction PMI and factory orders from the US. It will be a busy week for the GBP as on Thursday the BoE will release a trifecta of very important news all at the same time.
In terms of market movers, USDCAD continues its march towards uncharted territory. The Pair posted another multiyear high at 1.31755 – levels not seen since more than 11 years. OIL is continuing its slide fueled by fears that China is slowing down which will influence demand for it. The price reached $45 per barrel almost. The next important support is at $42.07. GBPUSD has a very important support at 1.5550 and only below that will 1.5400 be possible.
Trading Quote of the Day: “The Trend is your Friend”
USDCAD
Pivot: 1.3105
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.3105 with targets @ 1.321 & 1.326 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.3105 look for further downside with 1.305 & 1.301 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
GOLD
Pivot: 1097.5
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1097.5 with targets @ 1080 & 1073 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1097.5 look for further upside with 1105 & 1115 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1097.5 is resistance, likely decline to 1080.
OIL
Pivot: 46.55
Likely scenario: Short positions below 46.55 with targets @ 44 & 43.2 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 46.55 look for further upside with 47.4 & 48.65 as targets.
Comment: As long as 46.55 is resistance, likely decline to 44.
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