Currency Updates:
AUD/USD
• Combination of factors have AUD heavy in Europe & NY trade
• Tighter spreads, iron-ore drop, EUR/AUD rally, AUD/NZD drop all weigh
• AUD/USD hits 0.7863 low in NY, EUR/AUD to 1.4225, AUD/NZD to 1.0337
• 0.7820/35 (TL,10-DMA,Apr 28 low) supt under threat, day RSI biased down
• Break might see deeper pullback within recent rally, L-T chart favors bulls
• Weak US data on Fri might see much of today’s losses erased
EUR/USD
• O/N rally stalls ahead of 1.1250/80 res, slips toward 1.1190 into NY open
• Above f/c US ECI & below f/c claims lift USD, EUR/USD dips ~1.1115
• Dip bought as German bond yields rally outperforms US yield lift
• USD & US yield gains erode in afternoon, EUR/USD ~1.1220 late in day
• Asia & European session likely quiet with Labor day holiday
• April Markit & ISM Mfg PMIs risks in NY, if weak pair likely rises further
USD/JPY
• O/N post BOJ dip to 118.50 left o/s USD/JPY primed for rebound on US data
• Tsy ylds drove it toward Cloud top, Apr 23 hi & dn TL fm Mar at 120.05/10/20
• 119.90 capped as Tsy ylds retreated amid stocks fall (N225 futs -2.7% last)
• Stops above 120.10-20, but need US data strong enough to keep stocks up
• EUR/JPY well above daily Cloud, light rsst by 135; 200-DMA 137.41
• HY/Cmdty/EM crosses pruned.
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
• 23:30 JP All Household Spding YY* mar f/c -12.1%, -2.90%-prev
• 23:30 JP All Household Spending MM* Mar f/c 0.5%, 0.80%-prev
• 23:30 JP CPI, Core Nationwide YY Mar f/c 2.1%, 2.00%-prev
• 23:30 JP CPI, Overall Nationwide* Mar 2.20%-prev
• 23:30 JP CPI Core Tokyo YY* Apr f/c 0.5%, 2.20%-prev
• 23:30 JP CPI, Overall Tokyo* Apr 2.30%-prev
• 23:30 JP Unemployment Rate Mar f/c 3.5%, 3.50%-prev
• 23:50 JP Foreign Bond Investment w/e 432.0b-prev
• 23:50 JP Foreign Invest JP Stock w/e 595.2b-prev
• 23:30 AU AIG Manufacturing Index Apr 46.3-prev
• 01:00 CN NBS Non-Mfg PMI* Apr 53.7-prev
• 01:00 CN NBS Manufacturing PMI* Apr f/c 50, 50.1-prev
• 01:30 JP Overtime Pay Mar 0.40%-prev
• 01:35 JP Manufacturing PMI Apr 49.7-prev
Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No Significant Events
