Currency Updates:
AUD/USD
• Short covering in holiday thinned Europe mkt after 50 Fib of 0.7534-0.8077 test
• NY continues slow & steady ascent as USD lift stalls & commodities lift
• S-T res ~0.7850/60 tested ahead of RBA, mkt prices >75% chance of cut
• If no cut shorts scramble to cover then April high in play
• Some talk that if cut made will be last, possible big bounce after initial drop
• Mkt remains net short AUD so potential for decent squeeze is extant
EUR/USD
• Intra-day short covering ensues in early NY as US yields slip & USD lift fades
• Hourly res near 1.1190 caps, mkt seems to be in sell-rally mode
• Steady slide ensues as USD rebounds, pair near day’s low in afternoon
• FT noting IMF threat to cut off Greek lifeline weighs
• S-T techs bearish, RSI weighs & 5/1 76.4 Fib rejection sees downside today
• 1.1065/75 support test likely, slightly wider yield spreads support a drop
USD/JPY
• Golden Week & London holidays left USD/JPY to a 120.00-28 range
• Offers ahead of 120.30 also capped on Friday, while Cloud top is by 120.00
• 2nd-tier US data had ltd impact on Tsys & USD, but yld uptrend is supportive
• EUR/JPY’s month-end EUR & asset bubble short squeeze peaked Friday
• Couldn’t close above 38.2% of 149.79-126.08 or 100-DMA at 135.14/134.73
• FT report suggests Greek at risk of losing IMF funding support
GBP/USD
• GBP/USD moves to low in early NY at 1.5091 just below daily cloud top (1.5095)
• Election May 7, 1-week option vol’s highest since ’10 election
• Light activity today owing to Holiday keeps GBP/USD on offer, hovers near Fri low
• EUR/GBP struggles to extend bull run, 7353-7397, bear biased
• Polls continue to paint hung parliament to Thurs UK polling picture
• Cross ends NY by low of day IMF ire at Greek deficit weighs on EUR
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
• 23:30 AU AIG Services Index Apr 50.2-prev
• 01:00 AU HIA New Home Sales m/m Mar 1.10%-prev
• 01:30 AU Trade Balance G&S (A$) Mar f/c -1000m, -1256m-prev
• 01:30 AU Goods/Services Imports Mar 2.00%-prev
• 01:30 AU Goods/Services Exports Mar 1.00%-prev
Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• 04:30 AU RBA Cash Rate May f/c 2%, 2.25%-prev
