Currency Updates:
AUD/USD
• Pair c200-HMA at NY open, USD bid in Europe, erodes post-RBA gains
• USD hit on worse than f/c Mar trade data, post-RBA spike high tested
• ISM services beat dips pair ~0.7890, dip bought as USD tumble resumes
• Mkt ignores rising US Tsy yields & pushes pair to 0.7955 high
• Little pullback, Techs lean bullish, bull engulfing candle, RSI biased up
• Oz retail sales & China services PMI the risks in Asia
EUR/USD
• Daily cloud top pierced in Europe’s morning but little follow through
• EU ups 2015 Europe area GDP & CPI f/c, shorts cover, ~1.1130 at NY open
• Bad US trade data hits USD, more shorts cover, ISM beat doesn’t help USD
• USD slide persists even as US Tsy yields rise, EUR/USD to 1.1223 high
• Good res at 1.1225, break eyes 1.14, techs lean a bit bullish
• EZ services PMIs to impact tomorrow, if upbeat more EUR strength likely
USD/JPY
• Huge US Trade gap pulled USD/JPY away from 120.51 high
• No new high on strong Services ISM & P/T triggered sub 120 sell stops
• Low 119.72 held above Kijun at 119.67; Cloud base & 100-DMA at 119.34 key
• Yield spread rise & N225 fall at odds, both victims of P/T in inflated assets
• EUR/JPY rally stalled by 100-DMA so far. ADP & Yellen speech key Wed
• AUD/JPY shrugs off RBA cut (last one?); GBP/JPY wobbling into May 7 vote
GBP/USD
• Cable found bids by 1.5088 after weak UK cons PMI
• Fri’s Mfg miss pressed on GBP as well, 1.5095= daily cloud top, 1.5091 Mon low
• UK svcs PMI Wed, opt int circa 1.5170, res 1.5229 daily Tenkan line
• EUR/GBP to pre-UK data low 0.7316 on Greek concerns, ends NY by high at 0.7378
• Cross rallies as EZ equity slide sees EUR shorts cover, DAX/CAC-40 off >2%
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
• 22:45 NZ HLFS Unemployment Rate Q1 f/c 5.5%, 5.70%-prev
• 22:45 NZ HLFS Job Growth QQ Q1 f/c 0.8%, 1.20%-prev
• 22:45 NZ HLFS Participation Rate Q1 f/c 69.4%, 69.70%-prev
• 22:45 NZ Labour Cost Index – QQ Q1 f/c 0.4%, 0.50%-prev
• 22:45 NZ Labour Cost Index – YY Q1 f/c 2%, 1.80%-prev
• 01:00 AU HIA New Hm Sales m/m Mar 1.10%-prev
• 01:30 AU Retail Sales MM Mar f/c 0.4%, 0.70%-prev
• 01:30 AU Retail Trade Q1 f/c 0.9%, 1.50%-prev
• 01:45 CN HSBC Services PMI Apr 52.3-prev
Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No Significant Events
