US Q4 GDP Soars
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 1st February (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) Gained across the board on solid Q4 GDP and fresh risk aversion as US stocks continued to fall. Q4 GDP came in at 5.7% vs. 4.6% forecast. Also strong, UoM Consumer Sentiment at 74.4 vs. 73 expected. DJIA -53 points closing at 10067, S& P -10 points closing at 1073 and NASDAQ -31 points closing at 2147. Looking ahead, ISM Manufacturing Forecast at 55.5 vs. 54.9 previously. Also, Treasury Secretary Geithner Speaks.
The Euro (EUR) the downtrend continued as risk aversion and USD strength pushed the EURO to fresh multimonth lows below 1.3900. EUR/JPY managed to rally off multi month lows under Y125 as the USD/JPY pushed higher. January Inflation came in at 1.0% vs. 1.2% y/y forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3863 and a high of 1.3989 before closing at 1.3867.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) had another volatile day as cross selling on risk aversion was countered by strong USD/JPY buying after US GDP data. EUR/JPY finished just above Y125 while AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY slumped below supports at Y80 and Y145 respectively. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.59 and a high of 90.92 before closing the day around 89.59 in the New York session. Update January Chinese PMI at 55.8 vs. 56.6.
The Sterling (GBP) was crushed lower after support gave way to continued risk aversion and the pair slipped below 1.6000 late in the US session. EUR/GBP buying and the collapse in GBP/JPY added to downside pressure. The lackluster UK recovery is hampering the medium term outlook for the GBP. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5987 and a high of 1.6179 before closing the day at 1.6000 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) made fresh monthly lows on the back of rising risk aversion and weak commodities as the Global recovery stalled and investors grew more cautious. AUD/JPY slipped below the key Y80 level and the RBA rate rise on Tuesday has been called into contention. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8849 and a high of 0.8961 before closing the US session at 0.8856.
Oil & Gold (XAU) tested support below $1080 again but held up well closing above the key level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1074 and high of USD$1091 before ending the New York session at USD$1081 an ounce. The Oil downtrend continued as global investor sentiment soured. Crude Oil was up -$1.00 ending the New York session at $72.89.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3749 |
1.3833 |
1.3865 |
1.4053 |
1.4097 |
|
USD/JPY |
88.97 |
89.14 |
90.20 |
90.92 |
91.88 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5833 |
1.5897 |
1.5960 |
1.5982 |
1.6000 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8783 |
0.8820 |
0.8830 |
0.9048 |
0.9093 |
|
XAU/USD |
1070.00 |
1074 |
1081.00 |
1104 |
1117.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
70.00 |
72.50 |
72.80 |
74.00 |
75.00 |
Euro – 1.3865
Initial support at 1.3833 (Jul 8 low) followed by 1.3749 (Jun 16 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4053 (Jan 28 high) followed by 1.4097 (Dec 27 high)
Yen – 90.20
Initial support is located at 89.14 (Jan 27 low) followed by 88.97 (Dec 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.92 (Jan 22 high) followed by 91.87 (Jan 21 high).
Pound – 1.5960
Initial support at 1.5897 (Jan 7 low) followed by 1.5833 (Jan 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5982 (Jan 29 low) followed by 1.6000 (Big Figure).
Australian Dollar – 0.8830
Initial support at 0.8820 (Dec 25 low) followed by the 0.8783 (Dec 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9048 (Jan 28 high) followed by 0.9093 (Jan 25 high).
Gold – 1081
Initial support at 1074 (Dec 22 low) followed by 1070 (Oct 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 1104 (Jan 25 high) followed by 1117 (Jan 21 high).
Oil – 72.80
Initial support at 72.50 (Intraday support) followed by 70.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 74.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 75.00 (Intraday Resistance).
