Japan coming to Stimulus Party
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 1st April (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) massive moves seem in the last day of the first quarter with the USD a mixed recipient of flows. The rally seen in the EURO dragged all the majors higher and the Yen was very weak. US data was poor with Chicago PMI slipping to 31.4 and US CB consumer confidence remaining low at 26 vs. 25.3 previously. Crude Oil closed up $1.49 ending the New York session at $49.90 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 26 points or 1.78% whilst the Dow Jones up 86 points or 1.16%. Looking ahead, March ISM Manufacturing Forecast at 36 vs. 35.8. Also released, ADP Employment Report forecast at -655K vs. -697K previously.
·The Euro (EUR) Tested the topside of the recent range, trading above 1.33 but the pair couldn’t sustain these levels as caution set in ahead of the ECB announcement and economic data disappointed. German Unemployment rate jumped to 8.1% vs. 8.0% forecast and EU inflation (Mar) dropped faster than expected to 0.6% y/y from 1.2% previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3176 and a high of 1.3341 before closing the day at 1.3341. Looking ahead, German PMI Manufacturing is forecast to rise to 32.5 vs. 32.1 previously. Also released, German Retail Sales (FEB) forecast to rise 0.2% vs. -0.6% previously m/m.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) was sold aggressively today in contrast to Monday as news of a new stimulus package from Japan emerged and Unemployment jumped to 4.4% its highest level in 3 years. USD/JPY was especially buoyant climbing above 99 for the first time in 3 weeks. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 97.40 and a high of 99.46 before closing the day around 98.95 in the New York session. UPDATE Q1 Tankan Large Manufacturing Index at -58 vs. -24 previously. Lowest on record.
·The Sterling (GBP) jumped higher as market sentiment improved and GBP/JPY surged back above 140. UK Consumer Confidence (Mar) surge to -30 it’s highest since May. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4243 and a high of 1.4375 before closing the day at 1.4350 in the New York session. Looking ahead, PMI Manufacturing forecast at 35 vs. 34.7 previously.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied a good 150 pips on the back of the Japan news and positive US stocks before crashing lower in Late US on news from the New Zealand Reserve Bank that interest rate perceptions are off the mark. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6794 and a high of 0.6969 before closing the US session at 0.6910. UPDATE FEB RETAIL SALES -2.0% vs. -0.5% forecast.
·Gold (XAU) ended the day were it began as the recent range held true for another day. The market will await the outcome of the G20 meeting for further direction. Overall trading with a low of USD$912 and high of USD$925 before ending the New York session at USD$918 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3113 |
1.3174 |
1.3245 |
1.3343 |
1.3592 |
|
USD/JPY |
95.96 |
97.23 |
98.95 |
99.37 |
99.68 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4112 |
1.4241 |
1.4350 |
1.4361 |
1.4494 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6724 |
0.6771 |
0.6915 |
0.6966 |
0.7094 |
|
XAU/USD |
884.00 |
909.00 |
918.00 |
945.00 |
966.00 |
·Euro – 1.3245
Initial support at 1.3174 (Mar 31 low) followed by 1.3113 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3343 (Mar 31 high) at followed by 1.3592 (Mar 27 high)
·Yen – 98.95
Initial support is located at 97.23 (Mar 31 low) followed by 95.43 (Mar 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.37 (Mar 31 high) followed by 99.68 (Mar 5 high).
·Pound – 1.4350
Initial support at 1.4241 (Mar 31 low) followed by 1.4112 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4361 (Mar 31 high) followed by 1.4494 (Mar 27 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6915
Initial support at 0.6771 (Mar 30 low) followed by the 0.6724 (Mar 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6966 (Mar 31 high) followed by 0.7094 (Mar 24 high).
·Gold – 918
Initial support at 909 (Mar 30 low) followed by 883 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 945 (Mar 26 high) followed by 966 (Mar 20 high).
