Yen Weakness Accelerates
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 1st April (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was under pressure against European currencies as the Euro led most of the major pairs higher. Action was also seen on the USD/JPY as key resistance was broken at Y93. March ADP Employment report provided some surprise at -23k vs. +40k forecast. In US stocks, DJIA -50 points closing at 10856, S& P -3 points closing at 1169 and NASDAQ -12 points closing at 2397. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 440k vs. 442k previously.
The Euro (EUR) rallied from the start of Europe and kicked above 1.3500 after the weak ADP report. The main source of support was large EUR/JPY buying which pushed above Y126 for fresh 8 week highs. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3383 and a high of 1.3550 before closing at 1.3510. Looking ahead, February Retail Sales are forecast at -0.1% vs. 0.0% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was the weakest currency in the market losing across the board as end of financial year Yen buying failed to materialize and most pairs broke higher to multi-month highs. GBP/JPY surged to Y142 with little pullback as the Pound rallied off recent lows. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 92.11 and a high of 93.04 before closing the day around 92.85 in the New York session. UPDATE Q1 TANKAN Survey at -14 vs. -13 forecast and -24 previously.
The Sterling (GBP) continued with Tuesday’s move higher trading to 1.5200 on Cable. Strength was broad based with EUR/GBP pushing on support at 0.8880 but failed to break the key level. Going forward Friday’s NFP data will determine whether the Pound’s rally can continue. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4972 and a high of 1.5130 before closing the day at 1.4980 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was shunted lower on weak February Retail Sales at -1.4% vs. 0.2% forecast and was never fully able to recover in the later session. AUD/JPY did mange small fresh highs but the market is now in two minds as to whether there will be a rate hike in the April 6 RBA meeting. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9129 and a high of 0.9208 before closing the US session at 0.9160. UPDATE February Trade Balance forecast at -1924mn vs. -1300 forecast.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold was well supported on USD weakness. Overall trading with a low of USD$1102 and high of USD$1118 before ending the New York session at USD$1114 an ounce. Crude Oil surged to fresh year highs above $83 a barrel. Crude Oil was up +$1.39 ending the New York session at $83.76.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3247 |
1.3270 |
1.3505 |
1.3569 |
1.3608 |
|
USD/JPY |
91.09 |
91.77 |
93.35 |
93.63 |
93.77 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4704 |
1.4784 |
1.5200 |
1.5205 |
1.5257 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8936 |
0.8978 |
0.9160 |
0.9216 |
0.9250 |
|
XAU/USD |
1078.00 |
1085 |
1113.00 |
1118 |
1133.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
80.00 |
82 |
83.20 |
83.8 |
85.00 |
Euro – 1.3505
Initial support at 1.3270 (March 26 low) followed by 1.3247 (May 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3569 (Mar 23 high) followed by 1.3608 (0.618 of 1.3818-1.3268)
Yen – 93.35
Initial support is located at 91.77 (Mar 25 low) followed by 91.09 (Mar 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 93.63 (Mar 31 high) followed by 93.77 (Jan 8 high).
Pound – 1.5200
Initial support at 1.4784 (Mar 1 low) followed by 1.4704 (April 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5205 (Mar 31 high) followed by 1.5257 (Mar 19 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9160
Initial support at 0.8978 (Mar 4 low) followed by the 0.8936 (Mar 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9216 (Mar 30 high) followed by 0.9250 (March 17 high).
Gold – 1113
Initial support at 1085 (Mar 24 low) followed by 1078 (Feb 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 1118 (Mar 31 high) followed by 1133 (Mar 17 high).
Oil – 83.20
Initial support at 82.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 80.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 83.80 (March high) followed by 85.00 (Intraday Resistance).
