Volatile trading near Year highs
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 1st May (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) found itself under extreme pressure at the start of the European session after the Nikkei finished 4% higher. Profit taking from these levels and the Chrysler Bankruptcy help the Dollar to recover although the sentiment is still weak. Crude Oil was up $0.15 ending the New York session at $51.12 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 5 points or 0.31% and the Dow Jones was down 17 points or 0.22%. Looking ahead, Durable Goods Orders for March and ISM Manufacturing (April) forecast at 38 vs. 36.3 previously.
·The Euro (EUR) rallied sharply at the start of Europe, breaking above 1.3340 to test 1.3400 before falling heavily as enthusiasm waned. CPI (April) at 0.6% y/y was steady although still perilously close to Deflation. Attention now will turn to ECB meeting next week although comments from ECB members should be muted as the lockdown period begins. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3193 and a high of 1.3390 before closing at 1.3250.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened considerable in Asia as the Nikkei surge prompted USD/JPY buying and majors helped the crosses extend gains. The BOJ held rates at 0.1% but cautioned that downside risks still remain. CPI (March) came out at -0.3% vs. -0.1% previously. The Unemployment Rate (April) jumped to 4.8% vs. 4.4% previously. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 97.16 and a high of 98.98 before closing the day around 98.20 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) was able to overextend gains on the back of GFK consumer confidence jumping to -27 vs. -29 previously. Nationwide HPI was at -0.4% vs. -1.2% previously. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4705 and a high of 1.4946 before closing the day at 1.4780 in the New York session. Looking ahead, PMI (April) Manufacturing forecast at 40 vs. 39.1 previously.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) touched a new 6 month high above 0.7350 to touch 0.7388 before tracking the Euro back lower. The Outlook continues to improve for the Aussie and the break higher last night could open up fresh leg higher if stock markets allow. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7238 and a high of 0.7388 before closing the US session at 0.7255.
·Gold (XAU) weakened as the improved economic sentiment helped to dampen the precious metals appeal. Overall trading with a low of USD$881 and high of USD$899 before ending the New York session at USD$884 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2964 |
1.3121 |
1.3255 |
1.3392 |
1.3420 |
|
USD/JPY |
95.43 |
96.39 |
99.05 |
99.75 |
100.43 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4516 |
1.4609 |
1.4765 |
1.5068 |
1.5154 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6954 |
0.7049 |
0.7250 |
0.7738 |
0.7817 |
|
XAU/USD |
864.00 |
878.00 |
884.00 |
918.00 |
933.00 |
·Euro – 1.3255
Initial support at 1.3121 (Apr 29 low) followed by 1.2964 (Apr 28 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3392 (April 13 high) at followed by 1.3420 (Apr 7 high)
·Yen – 99.05
Initial support is located at 96.39 (Mar 23 low) followed by 94.15 (Mar 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.75 (Apr 17 high) followed by 100.43 (Apr 14 high).
·Pound – 1.4765
Initial support at 1.4609 (Apr 29 low) followed by 1.4516 (Apr 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5068 (Apr 16 high) followed by 1.5154 (Jan 12 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.7250
Initial support at 0.7049 (Apr 29 low) followed by the 0.6954 (Apr 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7738 (Oct 6 high) followed by 0.7817 (Oct 3 high).
·Gold – 884
Initial support at 878 (Apr 21 low) followed by 864 (Apr 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 918 (Apr 27 high) followed by 933 (Apr 1 high).
