Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 02/01/2007

January 2, 2007

Dollar slides against currencies in end of year trading. Euro-Yen makes new all-time highs. Markets wind down for new year celebrations.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –2 JANUARY 07 (23:30GMT)

  • U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was weaker against the majors in the last foreign exchange trading session for 2006 as holiday-thinned trading exaggerated moves in currencies. With volume dried up and no economic data of any significance, the greenback was at the mercy of short order flows. In other markets, the Dow Jones index finished down 38pts and the NASDAQ gave up 10pts as markets squared positions ahead of holidays. Crude oil finished at US$61.05 for the year with markets winding down for end of year festivities. Looking ahead, US ISM manufacturing is due out tonight.

  • The Euro (EUR) traded within a low of 1.3138 and a high of 1.3205, before closing at 1.3191 in the New York session. On the data front, Euro-Yen reached all time record high which kept the Euro well supported. Looking ahead, PMI manufacturing is due out today.

  • The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded within a low of 118.74 and a high of 119.18 versus the dollar, before closing at 119.07 in the New York session.

  • The Sterling (GBP) traded within a low of 1.9568 and a high of 1.9670, before closing at 1.9572 in the New York session. Looking ahead, PMI manufacturing is due out tonight.

  • The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded within a low of 0.7855 and a high of 0.7923, before closing at 0.7879 in the New York session.

  • Gold (XAU) rose by US60c to US$638.60 an ounce in thin trading.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.3052 1.3089 1.3205 1.3209 1.3247
USD/JPY 117.44 118.22 118.90 119.24 119.67
GBP/USD 1.9434 1.9516 1.9640 1.9751 1.9849
AUD/USD 0.7774 0.7808 0.7905 0.7933 0.7990
XAU/USD 612.17 618.20 637.00 636.71 638.10

  • Euro 1.3205

Initial support at 1.3089 (Dec 26 corrective low) followed by 1.3052 (Dec 18 corrective low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3209 (76.4% retracement of the 1.3246 to 1.3089 decline) followed by 1.3247 (61.8% retracement of the 1.3368 to 1.3052 decline).

  • Yen 118.90

Initial support is located at 118.22 (Dec 22 low) followed by 117.44 (Dec 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 119.24 (Dec 26 high) followed by 119.67 (Oct 24 corrective high).

  • Pound – 1.9640

Initial support at 1.9516 (Dec 26 corrective low) followed by 1.9434 (Dec 18 corrective low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9751 (Dec 20 corrective high) followed by 1.9849 (Dec 1 trend high).

  • Australian Dollar – 0.7905

Initial support at 0.7808 (Dec 27 corrective low) followed by 0.7774 (50% retracement of the 0.7614 to 0.7933 advance). Initial resistance is now at 0.7933 (Dec 8 trend high) followed by 0.799 (Mar 8, 2005 reaction high).

  • Gold – 637

Initial support at 618.2 (Dec 21 low) followed by 612.17 (Dec 18 corrective low). Initial resistance is now at 636.71 (Dec 29 high) followed by 638.1 (Dec 8 high).

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