Markets end the year on a high note, USD mixed
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 2nd January 2009 (00:30GMT)
- U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was mixed as stock rallied into the year’s end and commodities rebounded on 2009 hopes. The Dollar gained against the JPY but lost to high yielder’s such as the NZD and AUD. Weekly Jobless claims showed improvement dropping to 492K vs. 586K previously.   In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 26 points (1.70%) and the Dow Jones was up 108 points (1.25%). Crude Oil closed up $5.57 ending the New York session at $44.60 per barrel. Looking ahead, December PMI Manufacturing is expected at 35.4 vs. 36.2 previously.
- The Euro (EUR) ended the week with a heavy tone even as Oil rallied as traders unwound heavy EUR/GBP longs. Stocks were closed in most European bourses. 1.4000 remains the key level which the pair gravitated towards during the week. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3850 and a high of 1.4150 before closing the day at 1.3975. Looking ahead, December PMI manufacturing is expected to be confirmed at 34.5.
- The Japanese Yen (JPY) was mixed losing against the USD and GBP but gaining against the EUR. The USD traded towards the top of its 90-91 range as stocks rallied into year end. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.10 and a high of 90.95 before closing the day around 90.65 in the New York session.
- The Sterling (GBP) Rebounded off lows as oversold conditions on many pairs and improved market sentiment allowed the Pound to gain. GBP/JPY and GBP/USD all benefited. The market was volatile though and the downside was tested multiple times before ending higher. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.4350 and a high of 1.4625 before closing the day at 1.4700 in the New York session. Looking ahead, November Mortgage Approvals are expected at 32K. December PMI is forecast 33.5 vs. 34.4.
- The Australian Dollar (AUD) jumped higher as Gold, Oil and other metals jumped higher.   The pair also found support as stocks rallied breaking back above the key level at 0.7000. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6855 and a high of 0.7118 before closing the US session at 0.7040.
- Gold (XAU) bounced off lows as Oil surged $5 a barrel on Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Hamas. Overall trading with a low of USD$857 and high of USD$884 before ending the New York session at USD$881 an ounce.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
| EUR/USD |
1.3824 |
1.3852 |
1.3870 |
1.4258 |
1.4363 |
| USD/JPY |
89.11 |
89.76 |
90.90 |
90.98 |
91.30 |
| GBP/USD |
1.4044 |
1.4354 |
1.4675 |
1.4699 |
1.4771 |
| AUD/USD |
0.6759 |
0.6849 |
0.6965 |
0.6987 |
0.7139 |
| XAU/USD |
843.00 |
856.75 |
874.00 |
881.00 |
890.00 |
- Euro – 1.3870
Initial support at 1.3852 (Dec 31 low) followed by 1.3824 (Dec 19 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4258 (76.4% retrace 1.4363 to 1.3917) at followed by 1.4363 (Dec 29 high) - Yen – 90.90
Initial support is located at 89.76 (Dec 23 low) followed by 89.11 (Dec 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.98 (Dec 29 high) followed by 91.30 (Dec 25 high). - Pound – 1.4675
Initial support at 1.4354 (Dec 31 low) followed by 1.4044 (Jan 2002). Initial resistance is now at 1.4699 (Dec 31 high) followed by 1.4771 (Dec 29 low). - Australian Dollar – 0.6965
Initial support at 0.6849 (Dec 31 low) followed by the 0.6798 (Dec 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6987 (Dec 31 high) followed by 0.7139 (Dec 18 high). - Gold – 874
Initial support at 856 (Dec 31 low) followed by 843 (Dec 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 881 (Dec 30 high) followed by 890 (July 29 high).
