US GDP SINKING
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 2nd March 2009 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) Gained against most currencies as the dollar became the last refuge for investors with global stocks finishing the week very weak. Also hurting sentiment was the largest revision on record for US Q4 GDP at -6.2% y/y vs. -3.8% y/y initially. Crude Oil closed down $0.46 ending the New York session at $44.76 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down -13 points or -0.98% whilst the Dow Jones fell -119 points or -1.66%. Looking ahead, January ISM forecast at 33.9 vs. 35.6 previously.
·The Euro (EUR) came under pressure as US stocks slumped toward the 7000 level but failure to break this and extremely weak US GDP caused a lot of volatility and 1.2600 providing support. EUR/JPY came off the 125 level as traders took profits after very large gains during the week. January CPI was confirmed at 1.1% Y/Y and Unemployment rose to 8.2%. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2604 and a high of 1.2749 before closing the day at 1.2694. Looking ahead, Eurozone PMI manufacturing forecast at 33.6 vs. 34.4. Eurozone Inflation Flash forecast at 1.0% Y/Y.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) managed to gain after a week of losses as the speed of the decline finally caught up with the USD/JPY. Traders are beginning to talk about 100 Yen as the key target going forward and the biggest test for this recent rally. January Unemployment improved to 4.1% vs. 4.4% previously and Retail Sales dropped to -2.4% vs. -2.7% previously. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 96.86 and a high of 98.52 before closing the day around 97.79 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) although better supported the others currencies, cable succumbed to USD strength and tested 1.4150 before rallying into the US close. GFK Consumer Confidence improved to -35 vs. -39 forecast. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4112 and a high of 1.4365 before closing the day at 1.4313 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Manufacturing PMI forecast at 35 vs. 35.8 previously. Also released, January Mortgage Approvals forecast at 32k vs. 31K previously.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) came under pressure from the Asian session as risk aversion finally resulted in AUD selling. Resistance at 0.6350 proved solid but the subsequent rebound was limited and the commodity currency is on a weak footing. Analysts are mixed over whether the RBA will cut rates on Tuesday. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6340 and a high of 0.6481 before closing the US session at 0.6418.
·Gold (XAU) ended lower but was very volatile testing $960 before plummeting to test 930 for the second time this week. Investor demand still remains as the banking crisis provides fresh risk. Overall trading with a low of USD$930 and high of USD$961 before ending the New York session at USD$942 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2500 |
1.2558 |
1.2630 |
1.2899 |
1.2997 |
|
USD/JPY |
94.63 |
96.36 |
97.66 |
99.47 |
99.92 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3929 |
1.4052 |
1.4280 |
1.4607 |
1.4662 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6249 |
0.6333 |
0.6390 |
0.6577 |
0.6643 |
|
XAU/USD |
911.00 |
929.00 |
943.00 |
978.00 |
995.00 |
·Euro – 1.2630
Initial support at 1.2558 (Feb 24 low) followed by 1.2500 (Key Level). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2899 (Feb 25 low) at followed by 1.2977 (Feb 11 high)
·Yen – 97.66
Initial support is located at 96.36 (Feb 25 low) followed by 94.63 (Former Resistance). Initial resistance is now at 99.47 (Nov 10 reaction high) followed by 99.92 (Nov 5 high).
·Pound – 1.4280
Initial support at 1.4052 (Feb 2 low) followed by 1.3929 (Jan 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4607 (Feb 25 high) followed by 1.4662 (Feb 23 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6390
Initial support at 0.6333 (Feb 18 low) followed by the 0.6249 (Feb 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6577 (Feb 16 high) followed by 0.6643 (Feb 13 high).
·Gold – 943
Initial support at 932 (Feb 13 low) followed by 911 (Feb 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 978 (Feb 25 high) followed by 995 (Feb 24 high).
