US Stocks Surge as G20 meet
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 2nd April (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) tested both sides of the recent range with Dollar strength in Asia and weakness in North America. US data was mixed with ADP Employment falling -742K vs. -655K forecast being offset by March ISM Manufacturing climbing to 36.3 vs. 35.8 previously. Also helping sentiment, continued improvement in housing data with Pending Home Sales gaining 2.1% vs. -7.7% previously. Crude Oil closed down -$1.51 ending the New York session at $48.39 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 23 points or 1.29% whilst the Dow Jones up 152 points or 2.01%. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 650K vs. 652K previously. Also released February Factory Orders forecast at 1.5% vs. -1.9%.
·The Euro (EUR) early in Asia the downside was tested after it emerged that Obama considered bankruptcy the best policy for GM and Chrysler. After these reports were denied and stock around the world rallied the EURO tentatively rallied towards 1.33 but failed to break this ahead of the ECB today. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3168 and a high of 1.3285 before closing at 1.4240. Looking ahead, ECB rate announcement forecast to cut from 1.5% to 1.0%.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) was extremely volatile in Asia weakening after the Q1 Tankan Survey came in at a record low of -58. Almost immediately after this news of the Obama GM comments sent the USD/JPY plummeting aver 1 Yen lower. A denial from the white house saw the pair recover the rest of the day. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 98.25 and a high of 99.30 before closing the day around 98.50 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) outperformed other currencies as UK data improved with Manufacturing PMI (Mar) at 39.1 vs. 34.9. GBP/JPY rallied towards 143 whilst the cable made gains towards the key 1.4500 level. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4276 and a high of 1.4480 before closing the day at 1.4450 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Nationwide House Price m/m forecast at -1.5% vs. -1.8 previously.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) came under pressure with the GM news and a dreadful Feb Retail Sales -2.0% vs. -0.5% previously. The rebound came as stocks continued to rally and cross flows supported. EUR/AUD broke 1.900 to the downside and AUD/NZD jumped on fresh NZD weakness. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6859 and a high of 0.6999 before closing the US session at 0.6980.
·Gold (XAU) gained as the USD weakened with investors searching for alternate investments. Overall trading with a low of USD$917 and high of USD$933 before ending the New York session at USD$925 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3098 |
1.3113 |
1.3245 |
1.3343 |
1.3592 |
|
USD/JPY |
95.96 |
97.23 |
98.45 |
99.47 |
99.68 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4112 |
1.4241 |
0.4450 |
1.4494 |
1.4638 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6724 |
0.6771 |
0.6980 |
0.7094 |
0.7142 |
|
XAU/USD |
884.00 |
909.00 |
925.00 |
945.00 |
966.00 |
·Euro – 1.3245
Initial support at 1.3113 (Mar 30 low) followed by 1.3098 (50% retrace 1.2457 to 1.3739). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3343 (Mar 31 high) at followed by 1.3592 (Mar 27 high)
·Yen – 98.45
Initial support is located at 97.23 (Mar 31 low) followed by 95.43 (Mar 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.47 (Apr 1 high) followed by 99.68 (Mar 5 high).
·Pound – 1.4450
Initial support at 1.4241 (Mar 31 low) followed by 1.4112 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4494 (Mar 27 high) followed by 1.4638 (Mar 26 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6980
Initial support at 0.6771 (Mar 30 low) followed by the 0.6724 (Mar 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7094 (Mar 24 high) followed by 0.7142 (Jan 8 high).
·Gold – 925
Initial support at 909 (Mar 30 low) followed by 883 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 945 (Mar 26 high) followed by 966 (Mar 20 high).
