Bernanke a step closer to conceding recession. Focus shifts to Payrolls data.
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 03 APRIL 2008 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) paired much of it recent gains as Fed Chairman Bernanke noted further declines in the world’s largest economy would continue to contract in the first half of 2008, conceding for the first time the likelihood of recession. In other news, ADP employment reports for the month of March grew by 8k jobs well above forecasts of -48k (Previous: -23k), prompting traders to foresee a better Non Farm Payrolls release come Friday. However any further gains were limited following Bernanke’s dovish comments where “it appears likely that real gross domestic product will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly.” In
·The Euro (EURO) rebounded on Wednesday on Fed comments of growing uncertainty in the U.S. PPI figures for the month of February came in on expectations at 0.6%. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low 1.5535 and a high of 1.5684 before closing the day at 1.5667 in the
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) eased further against the greenback as Fed Chairman Bernanke said he didn’t anticipate rescuing another Wall Street firm. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 101.51 and a high of 102.84 before closing the day at 102.33 in the
·The Sterling (GBP) rallied across the board as Mortgage Approvals for the month of February fell less then expectations, prompting traders to trim bets that the BoE will move to cut rates as early as next week. The GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.9750 and a high of 1.9899 before closing the day at 1.9888 in the
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied as commodities headed higher. The Aussie Dollar was also boosted by rebounding Asian Stock Markets, prompting a return to the High Yielding Currency. Overall the AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.9055 and a high of 0.9157 before closing the session at 0.9145 in the
·Gold (XAU) also headed higher on energy prices. XAU traded higher by US$12.40 an ounce breaking key levels of US$900.20. XAU did trade with a low of 882.40 and a high of 905.30.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
| Currency | Sup 2 | Sup 1 | Spot | Res 1 | Res 2 |
| EUR/USD | 1.5473 | 1.5534 | 1.5675 | 1.5684 | 1.5787 |
| USD/JPY | 99.59 | 101.52 | 102.35 | 103.59 | 103.70 |
| GBP/USD | 1.9607 | 1.9722 | 1.9870 | 1.9899 | 1.9979 |
| AUD/USD | 0.8979 | 0.9024 | 0.9150 | 0.9158 | 0.9254 |
| XAU/USD | 849.50 | 873.00 | 902.70 | 921.00 | 940.60 |
·Euro – 1.5675
Initial support at 1.5534 (Apr 2 low) followed by 1.5473 (76.4% retracement of the 1.5324 to 1.5896 advance). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5684 (April 2 high) followed by 1.5787 (Apr 1 low).
·Yen – 102.35
Initial support is located at 101.52 (Apr 2 low) followed by 99.59 (Apr 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 103.59 (Mar 11 high) followed by 103.70 (61.8% retracement of the 108.61 to 95.76 decline)
·Pound – 1.9870
Initial support at 1.9722 (Mar 5 low) followed by 1.9607 (76.4% retracement of the 1.9363 to 2.0398 advance). Initial resistance is now at 1.9875 (Apr 1 high) followed by 1.9979 (Mar 31 high)
·Australian Dollar – 0.9150
Initial support a 0.9024 (76.4% retracement of the 0.8953 to 0.9254 advance) followed by 0.8979 (Mar 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9158 (Mar 27 high) followed by 0.9254 (Mar 27 high)
·Gold – 902.70
Initial support at 873.00 (Apr 1 low) followed by 849.50 (Jan 22 reaction low). Initial resistance is now at 921.0 (Apr 1 high) followed by 940.60 (Mar 31 high)
