Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 03/06/2009

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 3rd June (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) felt more pressure as investors continued to pressure the Dollar on the back of more rumblings from Asian disquiet with US debt. Pending Home sales kept the mood in the market positive with April up 6.7% vs. 0.5% forecast. US stocks manages a third day of gains. Crude Oil finished down $0.03 to finish the day at $68.47 a barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 8 points or 0.44% and the Dow Jones was up 19 points or 0.22%. Looking ahead, ISM Non Manufacturing is forecast at 46.5 vs. 45.2 previously. April Factory Orders are forecast at 0.9% vs. -0.9%.

The Euro (EUR) another day, another fresh high as the rally continued above 1.4300. The April Unemployment rate ticked higher to 9.2% vs. 8.9% previously. The market is now looking to the ECB meeting on Thursday and whether they expand the Quantitative Easing program. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4100 and a high of 1.4333 before closing at 1.4300. Looking ahead, May PMI Services are forecast at 44.7 vs. 43.8 previously. Also released April PPI is forecast at -0.8% vs. -0.7% m/m previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) couldn’t hold on to the 96 yen level on the USD/JPY as USD weakness intensified in the European session. Crosses remained buoyant but experienced waves of profit taking as the market becomes use to the new levels. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.32 and a high of 96.65 before closing the day around 95.60 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) dipped into the start of the European session as UK credit Growth was weak at 300m Pounds in April, up on March but still well down on historical averages. EUR/GBP gave up some of the recent gains as the Euro continued its rally unaffected. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6323 and a high of 1.6599 before closing the day at 1.6545 in the New York session. Looking ahead, PMI services are forecast at 49.2 vs. 48.7 previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) strong economic data helped the recent rally to continue with expectations of Australia missing a technical recession. The RBA held at 3.0% but the RBA statement was somewhat more dovish than expected with the central bank leaving the door open for future rate cuts. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8050 and a high of 0.8233 before closing the US session at 0.8200. UPDATE Australian GDP +0.4% vs. +0.2%.

Gold (XAU) rallied back above $980 on fresh USD weakness with precious metal sitting just below the key $1000 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$973 and high of USD$989 before ending the New York session at USD$978 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.4285

Initial support at 1.4100 (Jun 1 low) followed by 1.3926 (May 29 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4364 (Dec 29 high) followed by 1.4621 (61.8% retrace 1.6038-1.2330)

Yen – 95.45

Initial support is located at 94.43 (Mar 25 low) followed by 93.52 (Mar 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 97.24 (May 28 high) followed by 98.82 (May 11 high).

Pound – 1.6555

Initial support at 1.6163 (Jun 1 low) followed by 1.6085 (May 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6672 (Oct 30 high) followed by 1.6739 (61.8% retrace 1.8669- 1.3503).

Australian Dollar – 0.8185

Initial support at 0.7991 (Jun 1 low) followed by the 0.7803 (May 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8378 (Sep 26 high) followed by 0.8519 (Sep 22 high).

Gold – 983

Initial support at 959 (May 29 low) followed by 941 (May 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1006 (Feb 20 high) followed by 1032 (Mar 17 high).