Pound Soars into the New Year
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –4th January (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was volatile gaining against most pairs in the US session as Weekly Jobless claims continued to improve, leading to speculation that December Non Farm Payrolls could be positive. US stocks finished lower on profit taking. DJIA -120 points closing at 10428, S& P -11 points closing at 1115 and NASDAQ -22 points closing at 2269. Looking ahead, ISM Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 54.1 vs. 53.6 previously.
The Euro (EUR) is looking weak technically after failing for another time at the 1.4440 level. The slip lower was not helped by US stocks but the Euro did perform relatively well against the Yen. EUR/GBP slipped below 0.8900 as the Pound continued to outperform. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4308 and a high of 1.4441 before closing at 1.4318.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) ended the year on a very weak not as the major helped all the crosses higher. Further Weakness in the New Year is likely as Technical and sentiment both line up against the pair. AUD/JPY are GBP/JPY are particularly strong. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 91.93 and a high of 93.14 before closing the day around 93.08 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) continued to track higher against all currencies with GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP providing support for Cable to trade above 1.6200. December Nationwide HPI at 0.4% was as expected. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6051 and a high of 1.6235 before closing the day at 1.6080 in the New York session. Looking ahead, December Manufacturing PMI forecast at 52.1 vs. 51.8 previously.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trade above the key 0.9000 briefly but failed to kick on as the USD found support in the US session. AUD/JPY and EUR/AUD are both underpinning the Aussie along with the large interest rate differential. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8931 and a high of 0.9008 before closing the US session at 0.8991.
Oil & Gold (XAU) failed to close above $1100 but was well supported in a tight range. Overall trading with a low of USD$1095 and high of USD$1107 before ending the New York session at USD$1097 an ounce. Held a tight range well supported in the lower $79 region but failing inspiration to test the key $80 level. Crude Oil was up $0.12 ending the New York session at $79.62.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.4234 |
1.4273 |
1.4330 |
1.4458 |
1.4481 |
|
USD/JPY |
91.00 |
91.41 |
92.80 |
93.13 |
93.30 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5708 |
1.5833 |
1.6150 |
1.6236 |
1.6248 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8857 |
0.8902 |
0.8990 |
0.9011 |
0.9070 |
|
XAU/USD |
1074.00 |
1086 |
1097.00 |
1108 |
1114.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
78.00 |
79.10 |
79.70 |
80.00 |
82.00 |
Euro – 1.4330
Initial support at 1.4273 (Dec 30 low) followed by 1.4234 (Dec 24 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4458 (Dec 29 high) followed by 1.4481 (Oct 2 former low)
Yen – 92.80
Initial support is located at 91.41 (Dec 28 low) followed by 91.00 (Dec 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 92.3.13 (Dec 31 high) followed by 93.30 (Sept 7 High).
Pound – 1.6150
Initial support at 1.5833 (Dec 30 low) followed by 1.5708 (Oct 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6236 (Dec 31 high) followed by 1.6248 (Dec 18 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.8990
Initial support at 0.8902 (Dec 30 low) followed by the 0.8857 (Dec 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9011 (Dec 17 high) followed by 0.9070 (Dec 16 high).
Gold – 1097
Initial support at 1086 (Dec 30 low) followed by 1086 (Dec 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 1108 (Dec 29 high) followed by 1114 (Dec 28 high).
Oil – 79.70
Initial support at 79.10 (Intraday support) followed by 78.00 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 80.00 (Key Psychological Level) followed by 82.00 (November High).
