U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) enjoyed a positive day on the back of large corrections on multiple currencies. Large moves in Europe were seen on the back of combined statements from the Japan, India, Korea and China all supporting US debt. US stocks fell after ISM non manufacturing at 44.0 vs. 45.1 forecast. Crude Oil finished down $2.43 to finish the day at $66.12 a barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 10 points or -0.59% and the Dow Jones was down 65 points or -0.75%. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 620 vs. 623K previously.
The Euro (EUR) took a major hit in early Europe on the Asian central bank news as traders took profits on the recent rally and ahead of the ECB meeting tonight. Further losses were limited however as the Euro managed to gain against other riskier currencies. Of concern is recent reports of funding crisis in eastern Europe. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4108 and a high of 1.4340 before closing at 1.4150. Looking ahead, ECB meeting tonight.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) kept inside the recent range around 96 Yen as the crosses took the brunt of the action overnight. Carry trades were sold aggressively from year highs. AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY were especially hard hit. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.39 and a high of 96.44 before closing the day around 96.05 in the New York session. UPDATE Q1 Capex -25% y/y.
The Sterling (GBP) dropped hard in the face of better than expected economic data with profit taking in full control. The sharp drop also coincide with a recommendation from Goldman Sachs to exit long cable trades as the 1.6500 level objective has been reached. GBP/JPY was also rejected the 160 Yen level. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6239 and a high of 1.6666 before closing the day at 1.6310 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOE rate Announcement.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) had massive falls overnight even as the country officially missed a recession with a Q1 reading of 0.4%. Pullbacks in Oil and Gold and the strengthening USD combined to push the pair right back to 0.8000. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7931 and a high of 0.8266 before closing the US session at 0.8015. UPDATE APRIL Trade Balance -91M vs. 1400M previously.
Gold (XAU) fell back as inflation fears eased with slips in gold and strengthening USD. Overall trading with a low of USD$960 and high of USD$990 before ending the New York session at USD$964 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3926 |
1.4058 |
1.4170 |
1.4364 |
1.4621 |
|
USD/JPY |
93.54 |
94.43 |
96.25 |
97.24 |
98.82 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.6163 |
1.6243 |
1.6315 |
1.6672 |
1.6739 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.7892 |
0.7933 |
0.8035 |
0.8378 |
0.8519 |
|
XAU/USD |
859.00 |
860.00 |
965.00 |
1006.00 |
1032.00 |
Euro – 1.4285
Initial support at 1.4058 (Jun 2 low) followed by 1.3926 (May 29 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4364 (Dec 29 high) followed by 1.4621 (61.8% retrace 1.6038-1.2330)
Yen – 96.25
Initial support is located at 94.43 (Mar 25 low) followed by 93.52 (Mar 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 97.24 (May 28 high) followed by 98.82 (May 11 high).
Pound – 1.6315
Initial support at 1.6243 (Jun 3 low) followed by 1.6163 (Jun 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6672 (Oct 30 high) followed by 1.6739 (61.8% retrace 1.8669- 1.3503).
Australian Dollar – 0.8035
Initial support at 0.7933 (Jun 3 low) followed by the 0.7892 (May 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8378 (Sep 26 high) followed by 0.8519 (Sep 22 high).
Gold – 983
Initial support at 960 (Jun 3 low) followed by 959 (May 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 1006 (Feb 20 high) followed by 1032 (Mar 17 high).
