Attention turns to FOMC
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 4th November (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) hit multi-week highs in Europe against a raft of currencies as banking worries put stock markets on the back foot. News of India buying gold and Warren Buffet making a large investment in US railways help the US reverse the market’s direction and helped gold to rally to fresh year highs above $1080. September Factory Orders forecast at 0.8% were actually 0.9%. In US Stocks, DJIA -17 points closing at 9771, S& P +2 points closing at 1045 and NASDAQ +8 points closing at 2057. Looking ahead, US FOMC Rate decision widely expected to remain at 0.25% but with the market focused on the accompanying statement. Also released, ADP October Employment Report is forecast at -190k vs. -254k previously.
The Euro (EUR) fell to fresh lows below 1.4650 as the Euro came under pressure from concerns about European and UK banking issues. Some analysts are beginning to view the recent Euro rally as nearing a top and are focusing on the downside for the first time in many months. Ongoing sovereign support is helping to slow the decent. EUR/JPY found support below 132 Yen. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4625 and a high of 1.4813 before closing at 1.4720. Looking ahead, October PMI services forecast at 52.3 vs. 50.9 previously. Also released, EU September PPI forecast at -0.4% vs. 0.4% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) held up well in a risk adverse environment making solid gains in Asia and Europe on the Crosses but giving these up in the US session. USD/JPY remain muted as it cycled the 90 Yen level. AUD/JPY was in play as the market struggled with risk appetite. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.86 and a high of 90.61 before closing the day around 90.30 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) broke below 1.6300 as the market continued to focus on the downside ahead of BOE and in the midst of Banking concerns. A rebound in commodities and US stocks helped lift the pair from lows. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6259 and a high of 1.6458 before closing the day at 1.6420 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October PMI is forecast at 55.5 vs. 55.3 previously.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) a raise in rates could not help the Aussie from falling steadily after the announcement. A muted statement also raised concerns that a December rate rise is in doubt. A strong rebound in risk sentiment and fresh highs in Gold help the pair to lift a cent in the US session but the market is still very nervous. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8915 and a high of 0.9094 before closing the US session at 0.9000. UPDATE SEPTEMBER RETAIL SALES -0.2% vs. 0.4% forecast.
Oil & Gold (XAU) new highs above $1080 as India’s purchase of 200 tonnes helped lift sentiment for the precious metal. Overall trading with a low of USD$1055 and high of USD$1088 before ending the New York session at USD$1084 an ounce. Rallied on the back of golds move higher. Crude Oil was up $1.47 ending the New York session at $79.60.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.4481 |
1.4581 |
1.4720 |
1.4859 |
1.4927 |
|
USD/JPY |
88.84 |
89.20 |
90.30 |
90.69 |
91.62 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.6126 |
1.6241 |
1.6415 |
1.6478 |
1.6604 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8866 |
0.8907 |
0.9030 |
0.9122 |
0.9218 |
|
XAU/USD |
1035.00 |
1041 |
1084.00 |
1085.00 |
1100.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
78.00 |
78.50 |
79.50 |
80.00 |
82.00 |
Euro – 1.4720
Initial support at 1.4581 (Oct 5 low) followed by 1.4481 (Oct 2 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4859 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1.4927 (Oct 27 high)
Yen – 90.30
Initial support is located at 89.20 (Nov 2 low) followed by 88.84 (Oct 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.69 (Nov 2 high) followed by 91.62 (Oct 29 high).
Pound – 1.6415
Initial support at 1.6241 (Oct 19 low) followed by 1.6141(Sept 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6478 (Nov 2 high) followed by 1.6604 (Oct 29 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9030
Initial support at 0.8907 (Nov 2 low) followed by the 0.8866 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9122 (Nov 2 high) followed by 0.9218 (Oct 27 high).
Gold – 1084
Initial support at 1041 (Nov 2 low) followed by 1035 (Oct 30 high). Initial resistance is now at 1067 (Oct 20 high) followed by 1070 (Oct 14 high).
Oil – 79.50
Initial support at 78.5 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.0 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 80 (Key level) followed by 82 (October High).
