Yen Weakness helping the USD
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 4th December (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) held steady against most pairs but gained against the Yen as the Japanese government stepped up it rhetoric and the market covers significant short positions on the USD/JPY. US stocks closed on a weak note and this helped the USD step on to the front foot. Weekly Jobless Claims were once again lower at 457k vs. 462 previously. November ISM was surprisingly weak at 48.7 vs. 50.6 previously. DJIA -86 points closing at 10366, S& P -9 points closing at 1099 and NASDAQ -11 points closing at 2173. Looking ahead, November Non Farm Payrolls forecast at -130k vs. -190k previously. November Unemployment Rate forecast unchanged at 10.2%.
The Euro (EUR) was well supported until the late US equity sell off on hawkish comments from ECB President Trichet after the ECB held at 1.0%. Q3 GDP was confirmed at 0.4%. Resistance near 1.5144 proved solid and the focus now turns to the downside supports at 1.4950. EUR/GBP resumed its uptrend and closed above 0.9100. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.5037 and a high of 1.5143 before closing at 1.5060.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continued to weaken as the downside is taken out of focus and the topside stops are hit. USD/JPY closed above 88 Yen and the crosses remain well supported. EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY have both gained over 3 yen in the last few days. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 87.57 and a high of 88.50 before closing the day around 88.20 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) rallied in Asia as the Nikkei gained over 3% and the GBP/JPY rallied aggressively. For the rest of the day though, constant selling pressure was seen and Cable finished near 1.6550 support. November PMI Services was weak at 56.6 vs. 57 forecast. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6529 and a high of 1.6725 before closing the day at 1.6540 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) October Retail Sales were +0.3% as expected but the market could not capitalize and break 0.9330 resistance even as gold continued to surge. AUD/JPY briefly traded above 82 Yen and AUD/NZD remained at 1.2800. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9230 and a high of 0.9325 before closing the US session at 0.9245.
Oil & Gold (XAU) broke $1220 to fresh year highs in Asia before some volatile profit taking later in the day. Overall trading with a low of USD$1203 and high of USD$1227 before ending the New York session at USD$1210 an ounce. Fell as US stocks came under pressure. Crude Oil was down -$0.30 ending the New York session at $76.00.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.4964 |
1.5032 |
1.5070 |
1.5144 |
1.5163 |
|
USD/JPY |
85.87 |
86.59 |
88.20 |
88.63 |
89.19 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.6273 |
1.6381 |
1.6560 |
1.6746 |
1.6878 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.9097 |
0.9232 |
0.9250 |
0.9323 |
0.9406 |
|
XAU/USD |
1175.00 |
1195 |
1212.00 |
1226.00 |
1250.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
74.50 |
75.00 |
76.00 |
78.00 |
80.00 |
Euro – 1.5070
Initial support at 1.5032 (Dec 2 low) followed by 1.4964 (Nov 30 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5144 (Nov 25 high) followed by 1.5163 (0.764 of 1.6038-1.2330)
Yen – 88.20
Initial support is located at 86.59 (Dec 2 low) followed by 85.87 (Nov 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 88.63 (Nov 25 high) followed by 89.19 (Nov 23).
Pound – 1.6560
Initial support at 1.6381 (Nov 30 low) followed by 1.6273 (Nov 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6746 (Nov 25 high ) followed by 1.6878 (Nov 16 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9250
Initial support at 0.9232 (Dec 2 low) followed by the 0.9097 (Nov 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9323 (Nov 25 high) followed by 0.9406 (Nov 16 high).
Gold – 1212
Initial support at 1195 (Nov 26 former high) followed by 1175 (Dec 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 1226 (Dec 3 high) followed by 1250 (Key level).
Oil – 76.00
Initial support at 75.00 (Intraday support) followed by 74.50 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 78 (intraday resistance) followed by 80 (Year highs).
