US stocks close at Year Highs
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 5th May (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) Dollar strength was short lived as Global Stock markets charged ahead. Most Currencies made solid gains against the USD with commodities also making substantial gains. Pending Home Sales rose 3.2% vs. 0% forecast. Crude Oil was up $1.27 ending the New York session at $54.55 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 44 points or 2.58% and the Dow Jones was up 214 points or 2.61%. Looking ahead, April PMI Manufacturing Forecast at 42 vs. 40.8 previously.
·The Euro (EUR) started to head higher in Asia with the release of Chinese PMI data which improved to above 50 in April. This good news for the worlds third largest economy helped set the tone for the rest of the trading day. March German Retail Sales dropped -1% vs. -0.1% forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3211 and a high of 1.3427 before closing at 1.3265. Looking ahead, March PPI is forecast at -0.5% vs. -0.5% previously
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) general USD weakness stopped the USD/JPY from gaining again today with the Key 100 level proving too ambitious. Crosses were very buoyant however with AUD/JPY remaining near year highs. The market is quieter than usual with Japan away on holidays. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 98.73 and a high of 99.59 before closing the day around 99.36 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) was poised below 1.500 most of the day until surging US stocks encouraged the market to break above late in the US session. The BOE meet on Thursday although the market is expecting no change to the 0.5% rate. Any change in the scope of Quantitative easing could still be quite a market moving event. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4834 and a high of 1.5037 before closing the day at 1.5010 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April Consumer Confidence previously at 41.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded at fresh year highs above 0.7400 as the USD hit session lows. The RBA meeting today is the big event risk of the week for the Aussie with the market forecasting no rate cut. Surging commodities overnight helped to support the move higher with Oil hitting year highs as well. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7312 and a high of 0.7413 before closing the US session at 0.7405. Looking ahead, March Building permits are forecast at 2.3% vs. 7.8% previously. RBA Rate Decision forecast to remain at 3.0%.
·Gold (XAU) took advantage of the broad USD weakness to climb above $900 an ounce. Overall trading with a low of USD$885 and high of USD$908 before ending the New York session at USD$903 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2964 |
1.3121 |
1.3400 |
1.3425 |
1.3420 |
|
USD/JPY |
97.15 |
98.53 |
98.90 |
99.75 |
100.43 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4609 |
1.4704 |
1.5010 |
1.5068 |
1.5154 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.7049 |
0.7233 |
0.7400 |
0.7738 |
0.7817 |
|
XAU/USD |
864.00 |
878.00 |
889.00 |
918.00 |
933.00 |
·Euro – 1.3400
Initial support at 1.3121 (Apr 29 low) followed by 1.2964 (Apr 28 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3425 (May 4 high) at followed by 1.3425 (Apr 6 high)
·Yen – 98.90
Initial support is located at 98.53 (May 5 low) followed by 97.15 (Apr 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.75 (Apr 17 high) followed by 100.43 (Apr 14 high).
·Pound – 1.5010
Initial support at 1.4704 (Apr 30 low) followed by 1.4609 (Apr 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5068 (Apr 16 high) followed by 1.5154 (Jan 12 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.7400
Initial support at 0.7233 (Apr 30 low) followed by the 0.7049 (Apr 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7738 (Oct 6 high) followed by 0.7817 (Oct 3 high).
·Gold – 889
Initial support at 878 (Apr 21 low) followed by 864 (Apr 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 918 (Apr 27 high) followed by 933 (Apr 1 high).
