Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 05/06/2006

June 5, 2006

MARKET SUMMARY –5JUNE06 (05:00GMT)

  • The Dollar dropped against the major currencies on Friday as a result of the weaker than expected US non-farm payrolls data. Although unemployment fell and average hourly earnings rose, the dollar weakened after payroll data for May came in at only 75k, when market estimates were hovering around 175k. Unemployment improved to 4.6% from 4.7%, and hourly earnings rose by 0.1% for the month of May. In other markets, the Dow Jones index fell by 12pts and the NASDAQ weakened by 1pt. Crude oil prices rose by US$1.99 a barrel to US$72.33 after supply concerns emerged with the abduction of 8 oil workers in Nigeria and the steadfast Iranian opposition to halting its nuclear enrichment program. Looking ahead, the US ISM Non-manufacturing index is due out today.

  • The Euro traded in a range of 1.2799 to 1.2939, before closing at 1.2818 in the New York session. Looking ahead, PMI services data for the month of May is due out tomorrow.

  • The Japanese yen traded in a range of 111.39 to 112.92 versus the dollar, before closing at 111.73 in the New York session.

  • The Sterling traded in a range of 1.8613 to 1.8858, before closing at 1.8825 in the New York session. Looking ahead, PMI services data for the month of May is due out today.

  • The Aussie traded in a range of 0.7445 to 0.7521, before closing at 0.7516 in the New York session. Looking ahead, the current account deficit is due out tomorrow.

  • Gold rose by $US7.50 to US$641.00 an ounce with base metals generally firmer recouping some of its losses from Thursday with buyers attracted to the weaker prices.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.2722 1.2974 1.2925 1.2973 1.3000
USD/JPY 110.96 111.32 111.70 112.95 113.38
GBP/USD 1.8348 1.8530 1.8835 1.8889 1.8964
AUD/USD 0.7357 0.7440 0.7510 0.7532 0.7655

  • Euro 1.2925

Initial support at 1.2974 (June 2 low) followed by 1.2722 (June 1 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2973 (May 15 reaction high) followed by 1.3 (Psychological).

  • Yen 111.70

Initial support is located at 111.32 (June 2 low) followed by 110.96 (May 23 corrective low 61.8% retracement of the 108.93 to 113.03). Initial resistance is now at 112.95 (June 2 high) followed by 113.38 (June 1 high).

  • Pound – 1.8835

Initial support at 1.8530 (May 26 low) followed by 1.8348 (38.2% retracement of the 1.7250 to 1.9027 rally). Initial resistance is now at 1.8889 (May 22 high) followed by 1.8964 (May 19 corrective high).

  • Aussie – 0.7510

Initial support at 0.7440 (June 1 low) followed by 0.7357 (April 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7532 (June 1 high) followed by 0.7655 (May 31 high).

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