RBA and Central Banks in Focus
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 6th April (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) in another holiday affected day the market was relatively quiet with most of the movement kept to tight ranges. March ISM Services jumped to 59.6 vs. 56.5 previously. Also released, February Pending Home Sales surged 8.2% vs. 0.6% forecast. In US stocks, DJIA +46 points closing at 10973, S& P +9 points closing at 1187 and NASDAQ +26 points closing at 2429. Looking ahead, FOMC Minutes released from the March meeting.
The Euro (EUR) traded around the 1.3500 level as rallies above the figure were sold and support at 1.3480 was tested. EUR/JPY tracked the USD/JPY lower but was generally well supported above the Y127 figure. EUR/GBP tested new multiweek lows after the GBP receive a boost. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3459 and a high of 1.3540 before closing at 1.3490. Looking ahead, April Sentix Index is forecast at -6 vs. -7.5.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was stronger most of the day after profit taking set in. USD/JPY eased from 94.80 to 94.10 in the US session before solid US data inspired a bounce. The major rally higher in many pairs has set the staged for some pull back. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 94.07 and a high of 94.80 before closing the day around 94.40 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) opened higher in Asia on the back of weekend reports that the Conservatives have extended their lead going into elections expected to be called this week. GBP/JPY is also holding near highs with interest to buy on dips towards Y140. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5221 and a high of 1.5322 before closing the day at 1.5290 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) closed above the 0.9200 figure as Oil and Gold extended gains. Attention now turns to the RBA announcement with the market fairly evenly split on whether another rate hike is on the cards. AUD/NZD had a bullish day extending gains to 1.31. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9189 and a high of 0.9224 before closing the US session at 0.9210. Looking ahead, RBA rate announcement forecast to rise to 4.25% vs. 4.0% previously.
Oil & Gold (XAU) pushed above $1130 resistance as the precious metal slowly grinds higher. Overall trading with a low of USD$1122 and high of USD$1133 before ending the New York session at USD$1130 an ounce. Crude Oil seized upon the improving US economic data to surge to fresh Year highs. WTI Oil Closed +$1.75 at $86.62 a barrel.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3268 |
1.3385 |
1.3460 |
1.3591 |
1.3627 |
|
USD/JPY |
93.28 |
93.68 |
94.25 |
95.06 |
95.29 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5044 |
1.5173 |
1.5265 |
1.5299 |
1.5382 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.9150 |
0.9183 |
0.9190 |
0.9225 |
0.9250 |
|
XAU/USD |
1101.00 |
1111 |
1130.00 |
1133 |
1145.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
85.00 |
86 |
86.40 |
88 |
90.00 |
Euro – 1.3460
Initial support at 1.3385 (March 31 low) followed by 1.3268 (Mar 26 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3591 (April 1 high) followed by 1.3627 (Mar 19 high)
Yen – 94.25
Initial support is located at 93.68 (Apr 2 low) followed by 93.28 (Apr 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 95.06 (Aug 24 high) followed by 95.29 (Aug 18 High).
Pound – 1.5265
Initial support at 1.5173 (Apr 1 low) followed by 1.5044 (Mar 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5299 (Apr 1 high) followed by 1.5382 (Mar 17 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9190
Initial support at 0.9183 (Apr 2 low) followed by the 0.9150 (Apr 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9225 (Apr 5 high) followed by 0.9250 (March 17 high).
Gold – 1130
Initial support at 1111 (Apr 1 low) followed by 1101 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1133 (Mar 17 high) followed by 1145 (Mar 3 high).
Oil – 86.40
Initial support at 86.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 85.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 88.00 (March high) followed by 90.00 (Intraday Resistance).
