Bernanke Optimistic about Future
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 6th May (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was able to finish the US session on the front foot as large rallies in the Majors were wound back ahead of key economic data this week. April Non ISM Manufacturing jumped to 43.7 vs. 42 forecast. Stocks remained at high levels as Bernanke predicted the US economy would start to recover by the end of the year. Crude Oil was down $0.28 ending the New York session at $54.12 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 9 points or 2.58% and the Dow Jones was up 214 points or 2.61%. Looking ahead, ADP Employment Report forecast at -650K vs. -742K previously.
·The Euro (EUR) traded above 1.3400 as Global optimism spiked before heavy profit taking sent the pair back to low 1.33’s. March PPI dropped -0.7% vs. -0.5% previously. EUR/GBP lost ground as traders got out of Euro positions ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3280 and a high of 1.3437 before closing at 1.3320. Looking ahead, EU Retail Sales (March) forecast at 0.1% vs. -0.6% previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) remained quieter than usual with Japanese Holidays hurting liquidity. USD/JPY kept to a tight range so movement in the crosses was left to their respective majors. The BOJ Minutes tomorrow and the Non Farm Payrolls on Friday the major event risk. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 98.98 and a high of 99.22 before closing the day around 98.60 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) broke above the Key 1.5000 level as support from GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP forced the Pound Higher. The normalization of market conditions is helping risky assets which the Pound is still considered one even as UK Interest rates remain under 1.0%. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4982 and a high of 1.5162 before closing the day at 1.5067 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Halifax HPI forecast at -17.7% vs. -17.5% previously.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) hit fresh year highs below 0.7500 as the AUD rallied into the US open. Profit taking took the pair back to support at 0.7400 but the market is at lofty level and the market would be happier to push on then remain at the critical levels. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7378 and a high of 0.7479 before closing the US session at 0.7410. Looking ahead, Trade Balance (March) forecast at 1850 vs. 2109 previously.
·Gold (XAU) shot above $900 to quickly rally to $915 before easing the rest of the day to finish below the big level. Overall trading with a low of USD$885 and high of USD$916 before ending the New York session at USD$898 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3121 |
1.3211 |
1.3295 |
1.3538 |
1.3582 |
|
USD/JPY |
97.15 |
98.53 |
98.70 |
99.75 |
100.43 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4704 |
1.4836 |
1.5045 |
1.5373 |
1.5477 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.7233 |
0.7300 |
0.7380 |
0.7560 |
0.7738 |
|
XAU/USD |
864.00 |
878.00 |
898.00 |
918.00 |
933.00 |
·Euro – 1.3295
Initial support at 1.3211 (38.2% retrace 1.2886 to 1.3736) followed by 1.3121 (Apr 29 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3538 (76.4% retrace 1.2886 to 1.3736) at followed by 1.3582 (Apr 6 high)
·Yen – 98.70
Initial support is located at 98.53 (May 5 low) followed by 97.15 (Apr 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.75 (Apr 17 high) followed by 100.43 (Apr 14 high).
·Pound – 1.5045
Initial support at 1.4836 (May 4 low) followed by 1.4704 (Apr 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5373 (Jan 8 high) followed by 1.5477 (Jan 12 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.7380
Initial support at 0.7300 (May 4 low) followed by the 0.7233 (Apr 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7560 (61.8% retrace 0.6009 to 0.8519) followed by 0.7738 (Oct 6 high).
·Gold – 898
Initial support at 878 (Apr 21 low) followed by 864 (Apr 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 918 (Apr 27 high) followed by 933 (Apr 1 high).
