Euro Concerns Intensify
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 6th May (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) continued to track higher with safe haven demand but was sold against the Yen as USD/JPY failed a test of Y95. Investors are flooding back to US bonds as they search for safety from the European debt crisis. April ISM Services was at 55.4 vs. 56 forecast.In US stocks, DJIA -58 points closing at 10868, S& P -7 points closing at 1165 and NASDAQ -21 points closing at 2402. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 440k vs. 448k previously.
The Euro (EUR) the crisis intensified as Greece riots turned deadly and yields on Spanish and Portuguese bonds increased with spreading contagion the worry. EU March Retail Sales were flat at 0.0% vs. 0.1% forecast. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2788 and a high of 1.2998 before closing at 1.2830. Looking ahead, March German Industrial Orders are forecast at 1.2% vs. 0.0% previously. Also released, ECB rate Annoucement forecast to hold at 1.0% with President Trichet to speak.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened aggressively against the Euro testing the Y120 level after USD/JPY support broke down on multiple failed attempts at Y95. Japanese investors have been away for the last 3 days and Thursday’s Nikkei session will be key for the Yen’s performance. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.32 and a high of 95.00 before closing the day around 93.80 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) held up better than most currencies as UK elections on Thursday kept the pound in a tight range. EUR/GBP broke down through 0.8500 supports. A hung parliament could result in a break of 1.5000 on Cable. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5065 and a high of 1.5176 before closing the day at 1.5120 in the New York session. Looking ahead, UK General Election.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was sold heavily as Oil losses mounted and risk appetite evaporated. AUD/JPY led the major lower pushing below Y85 support. AUD/USD continues to hold above the key 0.9000 and a break below could bring February’s 0.8700 lows into focus. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9019 and a high of 0.9120 before closing the US session at 0.9070.UPDATE MARCH Retail Sales 0.3% vs. 0.8% forecast.
Oil & Gold (XAU) was volatile as commodity weakness competed with Safe haven buying of the precious metal. Overall trading with a low of USD$1157 and high of USD$1178 before ending the New York session at USD$1174 an ounce. Crude Oil continued to slump falling below the key $80 a barrel level in panic selling. WTI Oil Closed -$2.77 at $79.97 a barrel.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2617 |
1.2732 |
1.2840 |
1.3115 |
1.3214 |
|
USD/JPY |
93.00 |
93.51 |
93.90 |
95.10 |
96.73 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4805 |
1.5067 |
1.5120 |
1.5265 |
1.5391 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8888 |
0.9002 |
0.9070 |
0.9273 |
0.9325 |
|
XAU/USD |
1146.00 |
1166 |
1175.00 |
1212 |
1226.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
79.50 |
80 |
80.10 |
82.5 |
85.00 |
Euro – 1.2840
Initial support at 1.2732 (Mar 12 low) followed by 1.2617 (March 11 2009 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3115 (May 3 high) followed by 1.3214 (Apr 27 high)
Yen – 93.90
Initial support is located at 93.51 (May 3 low) followed by 93.00 (April 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 95.10 (0.618 of 101.44 – 84.83) followed by 96.73 (Aug 12 2009 High).
Pound – 1.5120
Initial support at 1.5067 (0.618 of 1.4784-1.5524) followed by 1.4805 (Mar 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5265 (May 4 High) followed by 1.5391 (Apr 30 low).
Australian Dollar – 0.9070
Initial support at 0.9002 (Mar 26 low) followed by the 0.8888 (0.618 of 0.8578 – 0.9389). Initial resistance is now at 0.9273 (Mar 4 high) followed by 0.9325 (Apr 30 high).
Gold – 1175
Initial support at 1166 (Apr 30 low) followed by 1146 (Apr 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1212 (Dec 4 high) followed by 1226 (Dec 3 high).
Oil – 80.10
Initial support at 80.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 79.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.50 (March high) followed by 85.00 (Intraday Resistance).
