Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 07/07/2008

Quiet Friday with US away on Holiday’s, focus on G8 meeting

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 7th July 2008 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) mostly range bound with the US markets away for July 4^th Celebrations. US President Bush is in Tokyo with other world leaders for the G8 summit where among other things the global economy will be discussed. Record Crude Oil prices and skyrocketing food prices will be top of the agenda. In the U.S. share markets were closed for July 4^th Independence Day. Crude Oil closed down $0.95 ending the New York session at $144.34 per barrel.

·The Euro (EUR) stabilized after a large sell off on Thursday. German Factory Orders disappointed at -0.9% vs. 1.0% expected leading to the lows of the day. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.5655 and a high of 1.5727 before closing the day at 1.5710 in the New York session. Looking ahead, July Sentix index forecast at 2.5 down from 5.2 in June and the May German industrial output expected at -0.4% slightly better than Aprils -0.8%.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) had a very tight trading day with new direction drivers limited. Weak European equities capped rallies. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 106.62 and a high of 106.88 before closing the day around 106.68 in the New York session.

·The Sterling (GBP) traded within a tight range but with a slightly offered tone dipping briefly twice below the 1.9800 level. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.9796 and a high of 1.9848 before closing the day at 1.9928 in the New York session. Looking ahead, May Industrial Output (April, 0.2%) and Manufacturing Output (April, 0.1%) both expected at -0.1% m/m.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) One of the strongest currencies on the day gaining against most currencies. EUR/AUD and AUD/JPY both performed well. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9593 and a high 0.9639 before closing the day at 0.9635.

·Gold (XAU) failed to gain traction as Crude Oil and Euro both traded to the downside. Overall trading with a low of USD$929 and high of USD$936.5 ending the New York session at USD$933 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

·Euro – 1.5695

Initial support at 1.5628 (Jun 26 low) followed by 1.5535 (61.8% retracement 1.5303 to 1.5910). Initial resistance is now located 1.5910 (July 3 high) at followed by 1.6019 (April 22 high).

·Yen – 106.80

Initial support is located at 105.78 (July 3 low) followed by 104.99 (Jun 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 107.22 (Jun 27 high) followed by 108.19 (Jun 26 high).

·Pound – 1.9820

Initial support at 1.9780 (38.2% retracement of 1.9410 to 2.008) followed by 1.9709 (50% retracement of 1.9410 to 2.008). Initial resistance is now at 1.9938 (July 3 high) followed by 2.0008 (July 1 high)

·Australian Dollar – 0.9630

Initial support at 0.9582 (July 3 low) followed by 0.9535 (Jul 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9670 (Jun 30 high) followed by 0.9700 (Round number resistance).

·Gold – 932

Initial support at 922.3 (July 1 low) followed by 910.6 (Jun 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 946.5 (July 3 high) followed by 953.0 (April 17 high).