Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 08/01/2007

January 8, 2007

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –8 JANUARY 07 (23:30GMT)

  • U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was markedly stronger against the majors in the Friday night foreign exchange trading session as non-farm payrolls surprised on the upside. Payrolls were posted at 160k compared to a 110k estimate by the market. In other markets the Dow Jones feel 89pts and the NASDAQ gave up 19pts as the market has now pushed back rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve. Crude oil dropped to US$55.89 a barrel amidst the heavy USD buying. Looking ahead, a relatively light data week for the USD.

  • The Euro (EUR) traded within a low of 1.2982 and a high of 1.3104, before closing at 1.3009 in the New York session.

  • The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded within a low of 118.00 and a high of 119.04 versus the dollar, before closing at 118.59 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Japan enjoys a market holiday today.

  • The Sterling (GBP) traded within a low of 1.9266 and a high of 1.9443, before closing at 1.9302 in the New York session.

  • The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded within a low of 0.7785 and a high of 0.7851, before closing at 0.7787 in the New York session. Looking ahead, retail sales are due out tomorrow.

  • Gold (XAU) fell by US$15.50 to US$607 an ounce in response to a stronger US dollar and weaker oil price.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.2926 1.2980 1.3000 1.3107 1.3181
USD/JPY 117.69 117.98 118.40 119.07 119.70
GBP/USD 1.9146 1.9222 1.9285 1.9446 1.9532
AUD/USD 0.7769 0.7779 0.7795 0.7855 0.7922
XAU/USD 600.00 602.46 609.00 630.75 645.00

  • Euro 1.3000

Initial support at 1.298 (Former resistance from Jun 5, 2006) followed by 1.2926 (50 % retracement of the 1.2483 to 1.3368 advance). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3107 (Jan 5 high) followed by 1.3181 (Jan 4 high).

  • Yen 118.40

Initial support is located at 117.98 (Jan 5 corrective low) followed by 117.69 (38.2% retracement of the 114.43 to 119.70 advance). Initial resistance is now at 119.07 (Jan 5 high) followed by 119.7 (Jan 3 high).

  • Pound – 1.9285

Initial support at 1.9222 (61.8% retracement of the 1.8835 to 1.9849 advance) followed by 1.9146 (Former resistance from Aug 8, 2006). Initial resistance is now at 1.9446 (Jan 5 high) followed by 1.9532 (Jan 4 high).

  • Australian Dollar – 0.7795

Initial support at 0.7779 (Dec 15, 2006 reaction low) followed by 0.7769 (Former resistance from Nov 1, 2006). Initial resistance is now at 0.7855 (Jan 5 high) followed by 0.7922 (Jan 4 high).

  • Gold – 609

Initial support at 602.46 (Jan 5 low) followed by 600.0 (Psychological round number). Initial resistance is now at 630.75 (Jan 4 high) followed by 645.0 (Jan 3 high).

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