Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 08/01/2008

Quiet data front. Oil continues pulling back despite tensions in the Gulf.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –08 JANUARY 2008 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) in light of no economic data from the US, markets were relatively tame. Fed member Lockhart expressed concern about inflation but more so about slowness in the economy. In U.S. share markets the NASDAQ was down 5 points (-0.21%) whilst the Dow Jones climbed 27 points (+0.21%) reflecting the directionless trading seen in FX markets. Crude oil pulled back by US$2.79 a barrel to US$95.12 after initially rising due to a confrontation between Iranian gun ships and the US navy. Looking ahead, pending home sales are due out tonight

·The Euro (EUR) was subdued against the greenback after PPI for the month of November came in on expectations at 0.8% and the unemployment rate posted a 7.2% result as forecasted. The EURUSD traded with a low of 1.4660 and a high of 1.4756 before closing the day at 1.4672 in the New York session. Looking ahead, retail sales are due out today.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) was weaker against the US dollar for the first time in eight trading days on speculation that global growth may withstand a slowing US economy. Overall the USJPY traded with a low of 108.51 and a high of 109.74 before closing the session at 109.60.

·The Sterling (GBP) was slightly weaker in the overnight session as Prime Minister Gordon Brown mentioned that the economy faces “tough decisions” in 2008, igniting fears of further rate cuts. The GBPUSD traded at a low of 1.9654 and a high of 1.9753 before closing the day at 1.9710 in the New York session.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) was also weaker hampered by a pull back in commodity prices and a rebound in the US dollar against most currencies. Building approvals came in at +8.9% from an expected 0.0% estimate. Overall the AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.8699 and a high of 0.8748 before closing the day at 0.8738 in the New York session. Looking ahead, retail sales are due out tomorrow.

·Gold (XAU) was weaker as oil continued to fall and the greenback strengthened. XAU fell by USD$3.50 to USD$862.20 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

·Euro – 1.4685

Initial support at 1.4659 (Jan 7 low) followed by 1.4570 (Dec 31 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4825 (Jan 4 high) followed by 1.4859 (Nov 28 high).

·Yen – 109.15

Initial support is located at 108.4 (Jan 7 low) followed by 107.91 (Jan 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 109.73 (Jan 7 high) followed by 109.76 (Jan 3 high)

·Pound – 1.9660

Initial support at 1.9653 (Aug 17 reaction low) followed by 1.9623 (Jun 8 reaction low). Initial resistance is now at 1.985 (Jan 4 high) followed by 1.9898 (Jan 2 high)

·Australian Dollar – 0.8715

Initial support a 0.8667 (61.8% retracement of the 0.8553 to 0.8852 advance) followed by 0.8624 (76.4% retracement of the 0.8553 to 0.8852 advance). Initial resistance is now at 0.8749 (Jan 7 high) followed by 0.8852 (Jan 2 high)

·Gold – 858.00

Initial support at 853.60 (Jan 3 low) followed by 833.90 (Jan 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 869.20 (Jan 3 high) followed by 874.27 (Jan open + (Dec * range 0.618)