CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 8th January 2009 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) weakened across the board as the December Private ADP Jobs report suggested -693K job losses vs. -473K forecast. Stocks slumped on concerns the economic slowdown will be longer than first thought. Oil fell over 10% as Weekly Crude Oil Inventories jumped by 6.7Mln vs. 0.7Mln forecast. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down 53 points (3.23%) and the Dow Jones was down 245 points (-2.72%). Crude Oil closed down $-5.38 ending the New York session at $43 per barrel. Looking ahead, Weekly jobless claims are seen at 540K vs. 492K previously. Also released November Consumer Credit is seen at -0.5% vs. -3.5% previously.
·The Euro (EUR) was well supported as the market dumped US dollars. Gains were limited as Oil plunged. Eurozone Data was poor with German Unemployment jumping to 7.6% with Unemployment at 3.102 Mln in December. Pound strength saw the 90 level erased on the EUR/GBP. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3433 and a high of 1.3746 before closing the day at 1.3645. Looking ahead, German November Trade Balance is forecast at 14.5Bn vs. 15.8Bn. Eurozone Q3 GDP is forecast to be kept at -0.2% and the November Unemployment Rate is forecasted at 7.8% vs. 7.7% previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) made solid gains against the Dollar as stocks slumped and fear entered the market. GBD/JPY and EUR/JPY managed small rallies as their respective majors gained but even these fell well off their highs. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 92.35 and a high of 94.14 before closing the day around 92.70 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) enjoyed a very solid rally breaking above 1.5000 and pushing up to mid 1.52’s before falling back as profit taking appeared before today’s BoE Interest Rate Meeting. EUR/GBP selling saw the GBP advance against all 16 of the most actively traded currencies. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.4806 and a high of 1.5281 before closing the day at 1.5100 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Bank of England meeting widely expected to cut -0.5% to 1.5% from 2.0% previously.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) tested Tuesday’s high after the terrible US data but risk aversion saw the AUD fall back to day lows. AUD/JPY selling remerged and steep falls in Oil and Gold weighed. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7094 and a high of 0.7268 before closing the US session at 0.7130. Looking ahead, Trade Balance is forecast at 2 Bln vs. 2.952 Bln.
·Gold (XAU) crashed lower falling over $20 an ounce as Oil had one of its biggest falls on record. Ongoing concerns about commodity demand hurt sentiment. Overall trading with a low of USD$836.60 and high of USD$866 before ending the New York session at USD$840 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3312 |
1.3431 |
1.3610 |
1.3747 |
1.3963 |
|
USD/JPY |
91.80 |
92.34 |
92.70 |
94.14 |
94.63 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4505 |
1.4805 |
1.5080 |
1.5399 |
1.5616 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6919 |
0.7034 |
0.7105 |
0.7269 |
0.7353 |
|
XAU/USD |
802.00 |
36.00 |
838.00 |
870.00 |
884.00 |
·Euro – 1.3610
Initial support at 1.3431 (Jan 7 low) followed by 1.3312 (Dec 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3747 (Jan 7 high) at followed by 1.3963 (Jan 5 high)
·Yen – 92.70
Initial support is located at 92.34 (Jan 7 low) followed by 91.80 (Jan 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 95.14 (Jan 7 high) followed by 94.63 (Jan 6 high).
·Pound – 1.5080
Initial support at 1.4505 (Jan 6 low) followed by 1.4428 (Jan 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5399 (76.4% retrace 1.5723 to 1.4351) followed by 1.5616 (Dec 18 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.7105
Initial support at 0.7034 (Jan 6 low) followed by the 0.6919 (Jan 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7267 (Jan 5 high) followed by 0.7353 (Oct 7 high).
·Gold – 838
Initial support at 836 (Jan 7 low) followed by 802 (Dec 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 870 (Jan 6 high) followed by 884 (Jan 5 high).
