Markets ease for a Second Day
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 8th April (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the USD started to accelerate gains after Global stocks slipped again. Concerns over GM and Banks rekindled some risk aversion supporting the Dollar. February Consumer Credit forecast at -1Bn came in at -7.48Bn in a worrying development for Retail Sales. Crude Oil closed down $1.90 ending the New York session at $49.15 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down -45 points or -2.8% whilst the Dow Jones was down 186 points or -2.34%. Looking ahead, FOMC Minutes from the last meeting. Also released, Crude Oil Inventories forecast at 1.3 vs. 2.8 Mln.
·The Euro (EUR) fell sharply after failing to get above 1.3400 against the USD. Losses were widespread with most currencies gaining against the single currency. EUR/GBP tested 0.9000 as the GBP remained resilient. Weighing in Europe was the revision of Q4 GDP to -1.6% vs. -1.5% forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3229 and a high of 1.3396 before closing at 1.3270. Looking ahead, German Trade Balance (Feb) forecast at 7.5Bn vs. 8.3Bn.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) benefited from the return of risk aversion with the USD/JPY testing 100 Yen on the downside. The Key level proved solid and the market returned to more stable level. The BOJ meeting saw interest rates held at 0.1% but the scope of collateral accepted by the BOJ was expanded to help smaller banks receive lending. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 99.87 and a high of 100.86 before closing the day around 100.60 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ Monthly Report released.
·The Sterling (GBP) dropped with the Euro in early Europe but was able to recover as Industrial Production beat expectations at -1.0% vs. -1.2$ forecast. EUR/GBP selling supported along with the rebound in GBP/JPY. Falling stocks are taking the shine off the Pound and this will need to reverse to make further gains possible. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4585 and a high of 1.4775 before closing the day at 1.4720 in the New York session.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell briefly after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 0.25% but then quickly surged as shorts took profit. Most analysts had predicted a hold or 0.5% cut so the move came as a surprise. Later in Europe the Aussie fell in Sympathy with the Euro but held up well for the rest of the day. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7048 and a high of 0.7168 before closing the US session at 0.7110. Looking ahead, Consumer Confidence (Apr) previously at -0.2%.
·Gold (XAU) found support as risk aversion notched higher and helped to stall the downside momentum. Overall trading with a low of USD$872 and high of USD$885 before ending the New York session at USD$883 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3072 |
1.3113 |
1.3280 |
1.3592 |
1.3678 |
|
USD/JPY |
98.23 |
99.35 |
100.70 |
101.44 |
102.41 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4241 |
1.4450 |
1.4740 |
1.4986 |
1.5154 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6976 |
0.7044 |
0.7115 |
0.7229 |
0.7268 |
|
XAU/USD |
843.00 |
852.00 |
883.00 |
909.00 |
933.00 |
·Euro – 1.3280
Initial support at 1.3113 (Mar 30 low) followed by 1.3072 (Former resistance). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3592 (Mar 27 high) at followed by 1.3678 (Mar 24 high)
·Yen – 100.70
Initial support is located at 99.35 (Apr 3 low) followed by 98.23 (Apr 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 101.44 (Apr 6 high) followed by 102.41 (Oct 20 high).
·Pound – 1.4740
Initial support at 1.4450 (Apr 2 low) followed by 1.4241 (Mar 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4986 (Feb 9 high) followed by 1.5154 (Jan 12 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.7115
Initial support at 0.7044 (Apr 7 low) followed by the 0.6976 (Apr 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7229 (Apr 3 high) followed by 0.7268 (Jan 7 high).
·Gold – 883
Initial support at 852 (Jan 23 low) followed by 843 (Jan 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 909 (Apr 1 high) followed by 945 (Mar 26 high).
