Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 08/04/2010

China Yuan in Focus, Geithner to make Surprise Visit

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 8th April (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was mixed as weak stocks prompted save haven demand for the Dollar but this was countered by a drop in US treasury Yields. Commodities were also mixed with Gold surging on demand for a safe alternative to currency and Oil pulling back on weak US inventories data. In US stocks, DJIA -72 points closing at 10897, S&amp P -7 points closing at 1182 and NASDAQ -5 points closing at 2431. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 435k vs. 439k previously.

The Euro (EUR) was under pressure for most of the day as focus turned to Greece bank funding concerns and Q4 EU GDP was revised lower to 0.0% vs. 0.1% previously. EUR/JPY was a big mover falling through Y125 as the market continues to unwind the recent rally and support is proving hard to find. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3325 and a high of 1.3404 before closing at 1.3340. Looking ahead, ECB Rate announcement is forecast unchanged at 1.0%. Also released, February Retail Sales forecast at -0.1% vs. -0.3% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was strong on rising geopolitical concerns in Thailand and Kyrgystan. USD/JPY pushed down to Y93.20 supports and is struggling to hold maintain ground with heavy cross selling capping any rallies. The BOJ held at 0.1% as widely expected. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 93.13 and a high of 94.28 before closing the day around 93.30 in the New York session. UPDATE February Machine Orders -5.4% vs. 3.7% forecast.

The Sterling (GBP) was sold heavily in Europe yesterday as the 5yr Gilt Auction was poorly received and the March UK services PMI came in at 56.5 vs. 58 forecast. EUR/GBP selling above 0.8800 help to support cable at 1.5140 and the pair manage to rally in the US session. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5137 and a high of 1.5290 before closing the day at 1.5220 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOE rate announcement forecast to remain at 0.5% and keep the Asset Purchase Program at 200Bn.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) shrugged off selling pressure to track gold higher and test 0.9300 which held for the time being. The Aussie is continuing to receive support from crosses with EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD falling back to recent lows and interest to buy AUD/JPY on dips. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9247 and a high of 0.9300 before closing the US session at 0.9270. UPDATE March Unemployment is at 19.6k vs. 20k forecast.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) broke above $1150 in a continuation of the recent rally. Overall trading with a low of USD$1132 and high of USD$1153 before ending the New York session at USD$1148 an ounce. Crude Oil fell from overbought levels as US inventories showed a bigger than expected build last week. WTI Oil Closed -$0.96 at $85.88 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.3325

Initial support at 1.3268 (Mar 26) followed by 1.3247 (May 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3497 (April 6 high) followed by 1.3538 (Apr 5 high)

Yen – 93.35

Initial support is located at 93.15 (Apr 6 low) followed by 92.76 (Mar 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 94.38 (Apr 6 high) followed by 94.79 (Apr 5 High).

Pound – 1.5220

Initial support at 1.5130 (Apr 6 low) followed by 1.5044 (Mar 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5319 (Apr 5 high) followed by 1.5382 (Mar 31 low).

Australian Dollar – 0.9275

Initial support at 0.9166 (Apr 6 low) followed by the 0.9131 (Mar 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9298 (Apr 7 high) followed by 0.9328 (Jan 14 high).

Gold – 1146

Initial support at 1122 (Apr 6 low) followed by 1119 (Apr 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1153 (April 7 high) followed by 1161 (Jan 11 high).

Oil – 85.70

Initial support at 85.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 84.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 86.00 (March high) followed by 88.00 (Intraday Resistance).