CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 8th September (00:30 GMT)
Written by Anthony Darvall
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) mild risk aversion and heavy EUR/USD selling helped the Dollar gain against most pairs. In US stocks, DJIA -107points closing at 10340, S& P -12 points closing at 1091 and NASDAQ -24 points closing at 2208. Looking ahead, July Consumer Credit is forecast to fall -3.8bn vs. -1.3bn previously.
The Euro (EUR) came under pressure for most of the day with the market focused on a WSJ article that questioned the European Banking Stress tests and also the German Banking Association reported that German Banks would need 100bnin more capital if new global banking rules get passed. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2675 and a high of 1.2821 before closing at 1.2690. Looking ahead, German Trade Balance forecast at 12.9bn vs. 12.3 bn.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY slipped below Y84 on heavy crosses led by the EUR/JPY but the moves were not drastic and support was found at Y83.50. The BOJ held at 0.1% but given it was the second meeting in two weeks the market was not expecting fireworks. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 83.50 and a high of 84.28 before closing the day around 83.75 in the New York session. UPDATE July Machine Orders at 8.8%.
The Sterling (GBP) was weaker against the greenback but made good gains against the souring Euro. Cable Found support at 1.5300 and bounced in the US session. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5294 and a high of 1.5427 before closing the day at 1.5360 in the New York session. Looking ahead, July Industrial Output is forecast at 0.3% vs. -0.5% previously m/m.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was pushed lower on neutral comments from the RBA after they held at 4.5% and news emerged that Labor would be forming a new government along with its proposed mining tax. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9090 and a high of 0.9181 before closing the US session at 0.9120.
Oil & Gold (XAU) gold surged in the US to test $1260 on global financial concerns.Overall trading with a low of USD$1244 and high of USD $1260 before ending the New York session at USD$1256 an ounce. Oil held up well in a risk averse environment. WTI Oil Closed -$0.30 at $73.80 a barrel.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2434 |
1.2588 |
1.2685 |
1.2933 |
1.3000 |
|
USD/JPY |
81.85 |
83.52 |
83.70 |
85.23 |
86.38 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4906 |
1.5125 |
1.5365 |
1.5492 |
1.5713 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8771 |
0.9055 |
0.9115 |
0.9222 |
0.9389 |
|
XAU/USD |
1210.00 |
1232 |
1257 |
1265 |
1300.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
70.00 |
72.50 |
73.70 |
75.00 |
76.00 |
Euro – 1.2685
Initial support at 1.2588 (Aug 24 low) followed by 1.2434 (61.8% retrace of 1.1877-1.3334). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2933 (Aug 12 low) followed by 1.3000 (Big figure Resistance)
Yen – 83.70
Initial support is located at 83.52 (Sept 7 low) followed by 81.85 (May 1995 low). Initial resistance is now at 85.23 (Sept 3 high) followed by 86.36 (Aug 13 high).
Pound – 1.5365
Initial support at 1.5125 (July 21 low) followed by 1.4906 (0.618 of 1.4231 – 1.5999). Initial resistance is now at 1.5492 (Sept 1 high) followed by 1.5713 (Aug 12 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9115
Initial support at 0.9055 (Sept 2 low) followed by the 0.8771 (Aug 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9222 (Aug 6 high) followed by 0.9389 (Apr 12 high).
Gold – 1256
Initial support at 1232 (Aug 31 low) followed by 1210 (Aug 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 1265 (June 21 high) followed by 1300 (round number).
Oil – 73.70
Initial support at 72.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 71.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 75.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 76.00 (Intraday Resistance).
