Obama Talks about Economy ahead of Jobs Data
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 9th January 2009 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) continued to weaken as the market factored in a weak data for the US ahead of Fridays Unemployment numbers. Weekly Jobless Claims fell for a second week at 467K vs. 491K previously. Of concern was November Consumer Credit which dropped -7.94bln. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 17 points (1.12%) and the Dow Jones was down 27 points (-0.31%). Crude Oil closed down $-0.93 ending the New York session at $41.70 per barrel. Looking ahead, December Non Farm Payrolls are expected at -550K vs. -433K. Also released, the Unemployment Rate forecast at 7% vs. 6.7% previously.
·The Euro (EUR) surged as the market sold the Dollar although it did come under pressure against JPY which rose on risk aversion. Was range bound against the resurgent GBP with the 90 level attracting attention. Q3 GDP was confirmed at -0.2%. Unemployment ticked higher to 7.8% as expected. November German Factory Orders plummeted -6.0% adding to concern over the German Economy. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3536 and a high of 1.3798 before closing the day at 1.36. Looking ahead, Eurozone Retail sales are forecast at 0.0% vs. -0.8% previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) continued to pullback on the USD/JPY as the markets reacted to stock weakness in Asia and crosses were heavy lead by the AUD/JPY and other higher yielding pairs. Support at 91 proved solid overnight and the market awaited tonight’s US jobs data. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.84 and a high of 92.91 before closing the day around 91.20 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) rallied as the market bought GBP after the BoE cut only 0.5% with some looking for a bigger 1.0% cut. USD weakness helped cable higher but weak stocks capped GBP/JPY rallies. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.4984 and a high of 1.5373 before closing the day at 1.5240 in the New York session. Looking ahead, December PPI input forecast at -2.2% m/m and PPI output -0.7% m/m.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) tested 0.7000 as risk aversion and weak stocks hurt AUD sentiment. USD weakness and a recovery in Gold allowed the AUD to reclaim the 0.7100 level. The November Trade Balance fell 1.45Bn from 2.96B previously. Also weak, November Building approvals which dropped 12.8% vs. -3.1% previously. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6957 and a high of 0.7132 before closing the US session at 0.7115.
·Gold (XAU) gained as the USD was sold broadly yesterday. Silver also gained reclaiming the $11 an ounce level it has been pivoting lately. Overall trading with a low of USD$837 and high of USD$865 before ending the New York session at USD$855 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3312 |
1.3534 |
1.3690 |
1.3799 |
1.3838 |
|
USD/JPY |
90.01 |
90.60 |
91.45 |
92.91 |
94.14 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4805 |
1.4984 |
1.5220 |
1.5374 |
1.5616 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6919 |
0.6957 |
0.7110 |
0.7142 |
0.7269 |
|
XAU/USD |
830.00 |
836.70 |
855.00 |
870.00 |
884.00 |
·Euro – 1.3690
Initial support at 1.3534 (Jan 8 low) followed by 1.3431 (Dec 7 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3799 (Jan 8 high) at followed by 1.3838 (50% retrace 1.4363 to 1.3312)
·Yen – 91.45
Initial support is located at 90.60 (Jan 2 low) followed by 90.01 (Jan 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 92.91 (Jan 8 high) followed by 94.14 (Jan 7 high).
·Pound – 1.5220
Initial support at 1.4984 (Jan 8 low) followed by 1.4805 (Jan 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5374 (Jan 8 high) followed by 1.5616 (Dec 18 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.7110
Initial support at 0.6957 (Jan 8 low) followed by the 0.6919 (Jan 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7142 (Jan 8 high) followed by 0.7269 (Jan7 high).
·Gold – 855
Initial support at 836 (Jan 8 low) followed by 830 (Dec 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 870 (Jan 6 high) followed by 884 (Jan 5 high).
